Bitcoin HODLers stay bullish despite breakdown below $80K – What now?

Bitcoin has continued to struggle, with the asset recently dropping below the $80,000 support level it had consolidated around for at least 12 days.

Structural signals are building to support a bullish outlook on the chart, but liquidation risk in the perpetual market is throwing up meaningful short-term headwinds that traders cannot dismiss.

HODLers hit a 14-month high

Long-term holders, the group of investors known to hold Bitcoin [BTC] for at least 155 days without selling, could prove central to Bitcoin’s performance from this point.

The Bitcoin HODL Bank, which measures the unrealized profit level among Bitcoin holders, has reached a 14-month high at the time of writing. This means holders are increasingly locked into their positions and selling minimally.

That is not all. Historically, surges to this level have reflected strong bullish conviction among investors, and the indicator formed at comparable readings before both the mid-2020 and mid-2023 rallies that preceded significant price highs.

The confirmation for Bitcoin would come from the asset clearing the $82,500 resistance level it has struggled to breach for weeks. Regardless of that, structurally, Bitcoin appears primed for a rally.

Long traders absorb $185 million in liquidation loss 

Despite the bullish structural conditions from long-term holders, liquidation data reveals that taking a long position on Bitcoin in the perpetual market currently carries significant risk.

Traders who went long on Bitcoin over the past 24 hours recorded $184 million in forcefully closed positions, compared to just $4.17 million on the short side.

What this implies is that there is currently more incentive for traders to open short positions on Bitcoin, which could impact the asset and push it even lower from its present level.

That is not all. Data shows there is an ongoing sell-off across the top five cryptocurrency exchanges by volume, including Binance, Bybit, OKX, and KuCoin.

At the time of writing, the long-to-short ratio on all four exchanges shows sell volume outweighing buy volume in the Bitcoin perpetual market. A continuation of this trend would weigh significantly on the asset going forward.

Limited downside liquidity

The liquidation heatmap shows Bitcoin currently caught between two key levels on the chart, with the balance of cluster positioning suggesting the market has a greater tendency to swing to the upside than to sustain its downward momentum.

This reading is based on the cluster levels visible on the chart, which show limited liquidity sitting below price. These clusters act as magnets, drawing price toward them over time.

A price drop to the lower cluster level would absorb buy orders sitting at that zone before using the resulting demand to push Bitcoin back toward higher ground. For now, though, the liquidity clusters reflect a tight range, and the next meaningful directional move is yet to be confirmed.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin HODLers have reached a 14-month high in unrealized profits, a level that preceded major rallies in mid-2020 and mid-2023.
• Long traders absorbed $185 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours compared to just $4.15 million on the short side, with sell volume dominating across Binance, Bybit, OKX, and KuCoin.