Why Paxton’s upset and Trump’s polling collapse spell bad news for the GOP

Despite suffering from weak approval ratings in countless polls, President Donald Trump is having no problem affecting the outcome of GOP primaries: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) and at least five Indiana state lawmakers are among the Republican incumbents who lost recent GOP primaries to challengers backed by Trump. Journalist Colby Hall is arguing that Trump's weakness in polls and far-right Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Tuesday victory over Cornyn are "the same story," showing that "Trump's coalition is getting smaller and louder at the same time."

"The contradiction at the center of Donald Trump's politics has never been more visible than it was this week," Hall, the founder of Mediaite, writes in a column for his ColbyHall.com website. "He is one of the least popular presidents in modern polling history, and simultaneously, the most dominant force in the Republican Party. Neither fact is canceling out the other. His approval numbers are collapsing again. Depending on the poll, they are now approaching the lows he hit after January 6. He is underwater on inflation, cost of living, immigration, and now Iran. The broader electorate is plainly exhausted by him, the still very high price of a gallon of gas, and the bread and eggs he promised to make cheaper on Day 1 of his second term."

Hall continues, "At the exact same moment, Trump casually ended Sen. John Cornyn's political career with a single endorsement of the far more MAGA-coded Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas. Ironically, Trump helping Paxton win the primary delivers his MAGA faithful a short-term win while putting the seat itself in real jeopardy. Democratic nominee James Talarico is a much more plausible threat to Paxton than he would have been to Cornyn, and a Republican Senate majority that looked safe a week ago no longer does."

According to Hall, the "true nature of Trump's current power" is that he "looks weak nationally" yet continues to be "all-powerful inside the Republican Party."

"The two observations fit together pretty neatly," Hall argues. "Trump still owns the Republican primary electorate. The problem for Republicans is that the Republican primary electorate is no longer the country. His coalition is shrinking and becoming more emotionally concentrated at the same time. That creates the illusion of growing strength because intensity is very often mistaken for scale."

Hall compares Trump's influence on the GOP's hardcore MAGA base to professional wrestling, noting that "the diehards in the front rows scream louder as the cheap seats empty out."

"Trump's endorsement (of Paxton) remains incredibly powerful inside a shrinking but highly motivated audience that still sees him as the central figure in American politics," Hall explains. "Outside of it, the reaction looks very different. Republicans may still hold the seat, but they just replaced a broadly electable incumbent with a candidate carrying impeachment baggage, corruption allegations, and obvious general-election vulnerabilities. Democrats suddenly have a plausible opening in Texas that barely existed before."