Bitcoin aNUPL Snaps Back to Red – Was the Bullish Reclaim Already Dead?

Bitcoin aNUPL flips back to red as the May recovery from $90K collapses. CryptoQuant data shows the bullish reclaim has failed, retesting mid-$70Ks.

The relief rally did not hold. Bitcoin’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss — a metric tracking the aggregate paper gains and losses of BTC holders — has flipped negative again, erasing a recovery that had barely weeks to breathe. On-chain data from CryptoQuant confirmed the reversal in real time.

BTC ran toward $90K in May, pulling aNUPL briefly into positive territory. That move looked, for a moment, like the kind of regime change traders wait for. It wasn’t. The coin slid back into the mid-$70Ks and aNUPL followed it down.

Source: CryptoQuant 

Why the Green-to-Red Flip Hits Harder Than a Simple Drop

Green-to-red transitions are a specific kind of market stress. Investors who just returned to profit — many of them newer buyers — get pulled back underwater before they can act. The psychological cost, per CryptoQuant analysis, tends to accelerate selling. Axel Adler Jr, noted the pattern is playing out in exactly this way.

The same sequence ran in early 2023 and again in late 2023. Both times, aNUPL dipped red briefly before the broader recovery pushed higher. Those episodes are now being used as one possible reference. The other reference is less forgiving.

Back in 2022, aNUPL didn’t stop at zero. The metric fell toward -0.15 and kept going, reaching territory closer to -0.35 before the real capitulation floor arrived. That took months. BTC lost more than 60% before anyone called a bottom with confidence.

Source: CryptoQuant — 

Two Playbooks, One Data Point – the Market Hasn’t Chosen Yet

The CryptoQuant post put it plainly: the signal is clear, the implication is not. A shallow red print — something that stays above the -0.15 level and resolves within weeks — would echo the 2023 fakeouts. The market bounced from those. Some participants are treating the current dip as exactly that.

A deeper loss regime changes the math. If aNUPL continues toward -0.15 to -0.35, the playbook shifts to 2022-style capitulation, where sustainable accumulation only resumed after weeks of extended red. The collapse from roughly $125K to the low-$60Ks earlier in 2026 already pushed the metric deep negative before May’s partial recovery.

Network-level data isn’t helping the bull case. Active addresses dropped nearly 40% over a two-week window ending May 26, falling from 821,000 to 494,000 — a signal that network participation has faded alongside price. Those two things used to move together. Right now, they’re both pointing down.

What Comes Next Is Still Open

The next few weeks of price action will likely determine which scenario takes hold. A quick recovery above the zero aNUPL threshold — one that sticks — would start rebuilding the bull case. The 2023 precedents would gain weight. But each session that holds below zero narrows that window.

Derivatives markets aren’t offering a clean read either. Funding rates turned positive again recently — a development that, in the context of weak spot demand, has historically signaled leverage-driven optimism rather than genuine accumulation. That combination rarely ends cleanly.

The aNUPL chart circles the current print in red. Same marker used on the 2023 entries. Whether this one holds at the zero line or traces further south — CryptoQuant’s data says the answer arrives in the coming sessions, not weeks from now.

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