Bank of Italy Stress Test Puts ETH Risk in Focus as Price Stalls Under $3,200

The Bank of Italy modeled an “ETH to zero” scenario, warning that a sharp ETH collapse could weaken Ethereum’s security and settlement capacity. Meanwhile, ETH keeps trading sideways, with $3,200 still blocking a stronger upside move.

Bank of Italy Says Ethereum Price Collapse Could Threaten Network Stability

The Bank of Italy has published a research paper examining what would happen if Ethereum's native token (ETH) lost almost all market value, including an extreme “ETH to zero” scenario. The study, titled “What if Ether Goes to Zero? How Market Risk Becomes Infrastructure Risk in Crypto,” was authored by economist Claudia Biancotti and released on January 12, 2026.

The report treats Ethereum as a piece of financial infrastructure, not just a speculative asset. It argues that validators — independent participants who secure the network — rely on rewards paid in ETH. If ETH’s value collapsed, many could stop validating, weakening the network’s ability to confirm transactions quickly and securely. That could slow or halt settlement processes and make the blockchain more vulnerable to attacks.

The Bank of Italy says this dynamic means a market price shock could spill over into broader infrastructure risk. Assets that depend on Ethereum — like large stablecoins and tokenized securities — might face operational disruptions if settlement slows or fails. The analysis does not predict such a collapse is likely, but uses the scenario to illustrate how token price risk can become a systemic concern.

Regulators, including the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, have highlighted similar concerns about stablecoins and crypto infrastructure. The Bank of Italy paper suggests policymakers must decide whether public blockchains should count as regulated financial infrastructure or be subject to more oversight and risk controls. 

ETH Stays Rangebound as $3,200 Blocks Breakout

Ethereum continues to trade sideways on the ETH/USDT daily chart from Binance shared by Ted Pillows on X. Price sits near $3,126 and stays trapped between the $3,000 support zone and the $3,200 resistance level. Because ETH has not closed above $3,200 with strength, sellers keep controlling that ceiling.

Ethereum USDT Daily Chart. Source: TedPillows via X

At the same time, buyers keep defending the $3,000 area, so ETH has not confirmed a breakdown. However, every rebound has stalled near the red supply band around $3,300, which reinforces that region as resistance. As a result, the chart still shows consolidation, not a trend flip.

If ETH reclaims $3,200 and then holds it, price can push toward the next resistance zones near $3,300 and then $3,700. Otherwise, if ETH slips under $3,000, price can sweep that support and then test lower demand areas near $2,800 and $2,600. Meanwhile, the repeated reactions around these levels keep the market in a range.