ZEC Weekly Analysis Jan 23

ZEC closed the week with a minimal 0.16% rise, stabilizing at the $358.71 level, while the downtrend structure remained intact. Although the market shows accumulation phase signals, BTC pressure requires caution in altcoins; monitor the critical $353 support.

ZEC in the Weekly Market Summary

ZEC showed a 0.16% rise over the last week, squeezing in the $356.03 – $372.29 range, but maintained primary downtrend dominance. As the price stabilized at $358.71, the volume profile remained at a moderate level of $482.79M. RSI at 38.03 reflects bearish momentum, while MACD with a negative histogram confirms the trend’s integrity. Unable to stay above EMA20 ($402.61), limited movements were observed. In the macro context, there is no ZEC-specific news flow, but BTC’s downtrend is creating pressure on altcoins. This week, while the market structure remains in a downward phase, accumulation traces appeared around the $353 support. For position traders, the trend filter gives a bearish signal ($469.21 resistance is critical), and patience is important for long-term thinkers.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

In the long-term view, ZEC is trading in a clear downtrend channel on higher timeframes (weekly/monthly). The price stayed below EMA20 ($402.61) and higher EMAs, preserving the bearish structure. From a market cycle perspective, a major distribution phase occurred from the 2025 peaks (%500+ decline); now a possible accumulation start is visible, but confluence is insufficient. Trend integrity is provided by the $469.21 resistance level prior to breakout – closes above this level could signal an upward phase shift. In the macro cycle, assuming we are in the early stage of the crypto supercycle, ZEC has recovery potential with its privacy coin narrative, but BTC dominance is the primary factor.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Weekly candles show accumulation phase characteristics while narrowing in the $356-372 range: low-volume tests and long lower wicks at $353 support. However, distribution traces exist in the volume profile – selling pressure dominated the upper range ($372). From a Wyckoff methodology perspective, a spring pattern is possible at $353, but volume confluence is required for the markup phase. Distribution patterns are supported by negative MACD without RSI divergence; this indicates a phase where smart money could close positions. From a portfolio manager’s perspective, short bias should be maintained until accumulation is confirmed.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily, the price tested and was rejected at $368.5850 resistance; $353.16 support confluence point is strong at 62/100. Among 15 critical levels on 1D: 2 supports/3 resistances. RSI at 38 approaches oversold, while MACD histogram continues to negative. Trend structure is bearish; staying below EMA20 keeps downside momentum intact. On this timeframe, a break above $368 opens the path to $402, but a break below $353 leads to $307.

Weekly Chart View

On the weekly, the downtrend channel is solid: 3 supports/3 resistances confluence (scores 61-69). Price is in the middle zone, but negative supertrend filter is bearish. For above long-term EMAs (50/200), $402.34 is the critical inflection point. Market phase is end of distribution/beginning of accumulation; volume is low, breakout expected. Even on the monthly, we are inside the down channel, requiring patience for position traders on a monthly horizon.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $353.16 (62/100, daily/weekly confluence), $307.50 (65/100, structural low). Resistances: $368.5850 (64/100, short-term), $402.34 (69/100, EMA20), $534.94 (61/100). These levels are direction-determining: below $353 opens downside phase ($47 downside risk), above $402 bullish confluence ($617 upside). Volume increase will be the confirmation mechanism at these points; market structure will show trend change at these inflections.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

Target $402 on close above $368.58 (R/R 1:2+), stop below $353. Confluence: RSI >50, MACD crossover. For long positions, wait for $402 break; targets $534-617 (score 25/100). Add to portfolio with accumulation phase confirmation, %5-10 allocation.

In Case of Decline

Short signal below $353: Target $307, then $47 (risk score 16). Stop above $368. In bearish scenario, trend intact; expect liquidations parallel to BTC decline. Manage position with %3 risk.

Bitcoin Correlation

ZEC is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); BTC downtrend at $89,554 ($88,436 support) is adding pressure on altcoins. BTC dominance supertrend bearish – BTC above $90,371 ($92k target) required for ZEC breakout. If BTC breaks $86k, ZEC dragged to $307; main BTC levels dictate ZEC strategy: below $84k full bearish scenario.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus on $353 support test and $368 resistance break; volume confluence required. BTC $88k-90k range determines ZEC direction. Check links for ZEC Spot Analysis and ZEC Futures Data. If trend stays down, patience; action on breakout. For details, ZEC and other analyses.