Harvard Economist Admits His Bitcoin Prediction Went Terribly Wrong

Writing on X (formerly Twitter), the well-known economist reflected on his 2018 call that Bitcoin was “far more likely” to collapse to $100 than ever reach $10,000. Seven years later, with Bitcoin trading above $113,000 after briefly touching a record $124,000, Rogoff admitted just how badly the prediction missed the mark.

From $100 to $100,000

Back in March 2018, Rogoff stated that Bitcoin’s long-term future looked grim, describing it mainly as a tool for money laundering and tax evasion. At the time, Bitcoin was retreating from its then-record of nearly $20,000, falling to around $11,000 and eventually crashing to just over $3,000 by the end of that year. His comments fit the prevailing narrative of a speculative bubble about to burst.

Instead, the cryptocurrency not only recovered but went on to post multiple all-time highs across the next two market cycles, culminating in its current six-figure price. Rogoff’s call, which resurfaced on social media this week, has since become a viral example of how unpredictable Bitcoin’s trajectory has been.

Why He Got It Wrong

Looking back, Rogoff conceded that his biggest mistake was assuming U.S. regulators would aggressively clamp down on digital assets. He said he was “far too optimistic” about the government moving quickly to enforce “sensible” rules that would restrict crypto’s rise.

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He also admitted that he underestimated Bitcoin’s ability to evolve beyond a fringe payment network. The idea that it could compete with fiat currencies, attract institutional investment, and gain legitimacy in global finance was something he did not anticipate. Finally, Rogoff pointed to regulators’ conflicting interests and their reluctance to fully rein in the sector as another blind spot in his analysis.

Where Bitcoin Stands Now

The debate over Bitcoin’s direction remains far from settled. Legendary trader Peter Brandt recently argued that there is now a stronger chance Bitcoin has already peaked, especially after its dip back below $113,000 in line with a broader Nasdaq pullback. While bulls maintain that the long-term trajectory still points higher, skeptics see echoes of past cycle tops.

Rogoff’s reflection underscores a larger point: even seasoned economists and market experts can get Bitcoin’s path spectacularly wrong. As the asset continues to defy expectations, both supporters and critics are being forced to reassess their assumptions about where it could go next.

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