Powell puts September rate cut on the table as Bitcoin rises 2% and Fed odds swing to 90%

Bitcoin rises 2% to $114,200 after speech.
Ether rebounds 8% after 12% correction.
US stocks gain 1%, yields drop to 4.27%, gold up 0.6%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell shifted the market narrative on Friday by signalling that a September rate cut is under active consideration, a move that quickly altered expectations across global financial markets.

Speaking at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Powell highlighted that downside risks to employment are rising and could accelerate in the form of layoffs and higher unemployment.

This shift in tone sent shockwaves through both traditional and digital markets, with Bitcoin, equities, bonds, and gold all responding within minutes of his remarks.

Bitcoin rebounds 2% after recent 10% slide

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed about 2% to $114,200 following Powell’s comments, reversing part of a steep decline earlier in the week.

The cryptocurrency had touched a record high above $124,000 roughly a week ago when market confidence in a September rate cut was near 100%.

However, as expectations cooled to 69% in the hours before Powell’s address, Bitcoin slumped nearly 10% to $112,000.

Data from CME FedWatch showed that immediately after Powell’s speech, the probability of a September rate cut jumped back to nearly 90%.

This surge in confidence provided support to digital assets, which had been under pressure from fading hopes of imminent monetary easing.

Ether bounces 8% after 12% correction

Ethereum (ETH) experienced sharper volatility than Bitcoin in the same period.

The coin corrected by about 12% after nearly reaching its all-time high, reflecting a deeper pullback in speculative tokens.

However, ETH bounced nearly 8% following Powell’s remarks, highlighting how sensitive cryptocurrencies remain to Federal Reserve signals.

The rebound suggests that traders are still positioning around policy expectations, with Ether’s sharper swings reflecting higher risk sentiment.

Stocks, bonds, and commodities follow suit

Traditional markets mirrored the move in digital assets.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 3% in the days leading up to Powell’s speech as investors priced in fewer chances of a rate cut.

However, following the shift in tone, US stocks gained more than 1%.

Treasuries also rallied, with the 10-year yield falling six basis points to 4.27%.

The US dollar index declined about 0.5%, while gold prices climbed 0.6%, reflecting a broader move into assets that typically benefit from looser monetary policy.

Risk markets show heightened sensitivity to Fed signals

In the days leading up to Jackson Hole, traders had positioned cautiously, expecting Powell to maintain a hawkish stance.

This contributed to selling pressure across risk markets, particularly in crypto.

The reversal in tone not only revived expectations of a September cut but also underscored the fragility of investor sentiment.

The developments highlight how closely risk assets remain tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Bitcoin’s correction and subsequent bounce, along with Ether’s deeper pullback and recovery, show that digital markets are moving in lockstep with Fed communications, while stocks, bonds, and commodities reflect similar dynamics.