Wintermute: BTC found support at the 200-week moving average; a clearer macroeconomic outlook is needed for a renewed upward trend.
PANews reported on February 17th that, according to a Windtermute research report, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driver of short-term volatility. Without "structural buying" (long-term funds capable of absorbing selling pressure) to absorb volatility, the market will experience sharp rises and falls on both the bullish and bearish sides. From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically has often been a key level for bear market bottoms.
Wintermute believes that until clear signals emerge at the macro level, every rebound should be seen as an opportunity to mitigate risk, rather than a reason to chase momentum.
For crypto, the key to getting back on an upward trajectory still depends on macroeconomic clarity. The 200-week moving average is holding, and the market hasn't suffered structural damage, meaning that once macroeconomic uncertainty subsides, the recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we're in a range-bound, slightly downward-biased market; trading is leveraged, and $70,000 remains a significant resistance level in the near term.
Finally, a recovery is possible in the second half of 2026, but most participants have probably already exhausted the patience needed to get to that point.
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