Why a Drop to $0.21 Is Still Possible

Cardano price has rebounded alongside the broader crypto market, rising about 5% in the past 24 hours. The move has helped the token recover nearly 10% from its March 4 low, offering short-term relief after weeks of weakness. However, the rebound does not fully resolve the structural risks surrounding the asset.

A weakening technical structure, rising on-chain coin movement, and an imbalance in derivatives positioning all point to the same possibility: the current rebound may still face downside pressure. Understanding that risk begins with the chart structure itself.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Emerges as Coin Movement Surges

Cardano’s price structure on the 12-hour chart is currently forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, a formation commonly associated with potential trend reversals. The pattern began developing in early February, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder now clearly visible. The neckline support of this structure sits near $0.26.

On March 4, Cardano briefly attempted to break below this neckline. The broader crypto market rally, however, pushed the price higher, allowing ADA to rebound roughly 10% from its recent low. Yet the technical picture still carries risk.

Between March 2 and March 4, Cardano formed two lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a higher high during the same period.

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The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price movements by comparing recent gains and losses. When price makes lower highs while RSI makes higher highs during a downtrend, it forms hidden bearish divergence. This pattern typically signals trend continuation, suggesting sellers remain active despite temporary rallies.

On-chain data reinforces this concern. The Spent Coins Age Band, a metric that tracks how many previously held coins move across the network, shows a sudden surge in distribution-linked activity.

On March 3, approximately 93 million ADA moved on-chain. By March 5, that figure had climbed over 143 million ADA, marking a 54% increase in coin movement.

Although the metric has since dropped to almost 81 million ADA, the spike suggests that many holders moved coins during the recent rebound, potentially preparing to sell. This rising distribution pressure leads to the next key risk area: leveraged traders.

Rising Long Leverage Adds Liquidation Risk as Spot Demand Weakens

While on-chain activity hints at potential ADA selling, derivatives markets reveal a second vulnerability.

According to the Binance ADA/USDT liquidation map, leveraged traders currently hold significantly more long exposure than short exposure.

30-Day Data shows:

• Long liquidation leverage: about $22 million
• Short liquidation leverage: roughly $17 million

This means long positions outweigh short positions by around 26%. While the long bias is not heavy, it still invokes caution.

When the market holds a long exposure amid a bearish technical structure, downside volatility can increase. If prices begin to fall, these long positions may be forced to close, triggering liquidations that accelerate the decline. Normally, strong spot market demand helps absorb this type of pressure.

However, whale activity suggests that such support is currently limited.

Wallet data shows that most major holder cohorts have not significantly increased their balances in recent days.

Addresses holding:

• 100 million to 1 billion ADA
• More than 1 billion ADA

have largely kept their balances unchanged.

Only the 10 million to 100 million ADA cohort has shown modest accumulation, increasing holdings from 16.67 billion ADA to 16.69 billion ADA. Slightly above $5 million in worth.

This increase is relatively small and does not signal strong new buying demand. With whales largely inactive and coin movement rising, the market may lack the spot demand needed to stabilize the price if selling pressure increases. This dynamic makes Cardano’s key price levels particularly important.

Cardano Price Faces Critical Test Between $0.28 and $0.25

Cardano is currently trading near $0.27, placing it close to the neckline support of the head-and-shoulders structure. Several levels now determine the next directional move.

The first resistance sits near $0.28. This level has repeatedly rejected price attempts since late February. A 12-hour candle close above $0.28 would signal that buyers are regaining control.

If momentum strengthens further, the next resistance lies near $0.29, where the right shoulder of the pattern formed. A stronger breakout above $0.31 would invalidate the bearish structure entirely. Crossing this level would push the price above the head of the pattern and could signal a broader trend reversal.

However, downside risk remains if support fails. A drop below $0.25 would confirm a breakdown of the head-and-shoulders pattern. In that scenario, Cardano could fall toward $0.21, representing a potential 18% decline from the neckline.

For now, Cardano’s 10% rebound has delayed the breakdown, but the combination of hidden bearish divergence, rising coin movement, and heavy long leverage suggests the market may still face a critical test in the days ahead. Only a 12-hour candle close above $0.28 can negate the threats for now.