XRP Versus Bitcoin: Why a Failed Retest This Weekend Could Lead to 64% Decline

The situation on the XRP-versus-Bitcoin chart looks like a “make or break” one for altcoin supporters. As of the end of the week, the pair is sitting in a critical zone that may determine the trend for the coming month.

What is visible on the TradingView chart is not just a retest of the 200-week moving average but an attempt by XRP to hold above it. In technical analysis, a weekly close below this level often signals a transition into a prolonged bearish cycle.

Why failed 200-day MA retest this Monday could trigger 64% decline 

At the moment, XRP is valued at 0.0000206 BTC. There are two days left until the weekly close, and if the price fails to consolidate above the red line, the technical breakdown-retest scenario will be confirmed.

If XRP indeed follows this path, the next major support zone stands only at 0.00000722 BTC per XRP — a pre-2024 rally level. A decline to these values would mean a further loss of more than 64% of XRP’s value relative to Bitcoin.

This is happening as capital continues to concentrate in Bitcoin, draining liquidity from altcoins, becoming the only interesting asset in the current crypto environment. 

For XRP, fundamental news capable of triggering a sharp buyback against Bitcoin above the moving average is now crucial. New regulatory guidance from the SEC and CFTC regarding the crypto market, and XRP in particular, has already been released. However, as can be seen, this breakthrough has not been enough for XRP versus Bitcoin.

The main marker is the Sunday closing price. If XRP ends the week above 0.000021 BTC, chances of recovery remain. If it closes below that, the bearish scenario will enter full force.