The Week Ahead: GameStop Earnings, Oil Prices, and Fed Rate Decision Outlook for March 2026

TLDR

• GameStop reports earnings Tuesday after its stock rose 13% in 2026, backed by investor Michael Burry
• All three major U.S. indexes are now down on the year, with the Nasdaq off roughly 7%
• The Iran war has pushed oil above $100 a barrel, with Brent crude trading around $107
• The Federal Reserve held rates steady but bond traders now price in a 50% chance of a hike by October
• Nvidia and Micron both sold off despite strong numbers, as AI stocks enter a “show me” phase

GameStop is set to report earnings on Tuesday. The stock is up 13% so far in 2026, partly driven by news that investor Michael Burry took a position in the company. Sales slipped in its last quarterly report.

Also reporting this week are pet supplies retailer Chewy, payroll firm Paychex, and homebuilder KB Home. Chinese robotaxi companies Pony AI and Weride will also release results. Both have lost close to 30% of their value this year.

Friday brings a consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. That report will give investors a look at how consumers are feeling as gas prices rise and trade tariffs remain in place.

The import price index arrives Wednesday. It follows last week’s wholesale inflation report, which showed a surprise jump in producer prices.

Oil Prices Stay Above $100

The war in Iran has now entered its fourth week. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. Brent crude was trading around $107 a barrel on Friday, up 3% for the week. West Texas Intermediate was at around $98.30.

Oil briefly dipped Thursday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But prices quickly recovered.

The near-halt of Strait of Hormuz traffic has rattled global energy markets and pushed inflation fears higher.

Federal Reserve Holds but Tone Shifts

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, as expected. But Chair Jerome Powell’s comments were more cautious than markets had hoped.

Bond traders now price in a 50% chance of a rate hike by October, according to Bloomberg. That is a sharp reversal from earlier in the year, when rate cuts seemed likely.

The Fed’s own projections still show one cut this year and one in 2027. But the tone has clearly shifted toward a longer pause.

Nvidia closed the week down about 4%, even after CEO Jensen Huang announced the company expects $1 trillion in revenue from its Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips. Micron also dropped roughly 5% after announcing a $5 billion increase in capital spending.

Jefferies tech analyst Jeffrey Favuzza noted this is the second straight earnings cycle where strong numbers led to a selloff. Bank of America analyst Neha Khoda said AI has entered its “show me” phase, where markets now want proof of real returns.

Initial jobless claims arrive Thursday, offering a read on the U.S. labor market.

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