Week 2 of October 2026
Statistics period: October 7 – October 13, 2026
Data cutoff: October 13, 2026
Over the past week, the crypto market went through a full cycle of an early-October momentum-driven rally, a reversal in ETF flows, leveraged liquidations, and a rebound from the lows. Bitcoin retreated from above $86,000, briefly dipping below $81,000 on October 13 and triggering large-scale long liquidations before recovering to around $83,500.
The key shift was the reversal in ETF flows. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $679 million in net outflows last week, marking the largest weekly outflow in nearly four months. Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, with $542 million flowing out last week. BlackRock's ETHA alone accounted for $477 million. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs ended their 14-week streak of net inflows.
On the macro front, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that most officials expected one more rate hike before year-end, although they were in no rush to tighten policy at consecutive meetings. The probability of an October rate hike remained in the 17%–20% range. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near 5.24%, with persistently elevated long-term rates continuing to weigh on risk asset valuations.
The U.S. September CPI report is the key catalyst that could break the deadlock. Market forecasts suggest headline CPI will rise from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, mainly driven by a rebound in gasoline prices. However, core CPI is expected to increase just 0.2% month over month, down from the previous 0.3%. Softer core inflation would reinforce expectations of a rate pause in October, while an upside surprise could reignite the possibility of another rate hike.
Overall, the market pulled back this week under three major pressures: broad-based ETF outflows, selling pressure from the U.S. government, and hawkish Fed minutes. The anticipated Uptober rally failed to materialize, although some institutions believe the market may have entered a period of consolidation and bottom formation. Market attention has now shifted to the upcoming September CPI report.
This week, Spot Bitcoin ETF flows reversed direction.
According to CoinShares, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $679 million in net outflows last week (October 5–9), marking the largest weekly outflow since late June. The largest single-day outflow occurred on October 7, reaching $485 million. Fidelity's FBTC and ARK 21Shares' ARKB were the primary contributors to the outflows.
BlackRock's IBIT saw a shift in its role. In previous weeks, IBIT had been the only consistent buyer, but last week, it no longer provided the same level of support for inflows. Although IBIT saw smaller outflows than FBTC and ARKB, it was unable to offset the broader trend of capital outflows.
Ethereum ETFs fared even worse. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, with $542 million flowing out last week, marking the largest weekly outflow since January. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for $477 million, or approximately 88% of total Ethereum ETF outflows. Solana ETFs saw $24.8 million in outflows last week, ending a 14-week streak of net inflows.
Structural Analysis: All three ETF categories recorded net outflows, totaling approximately $1.25 billion. Rather than redemptions from a single product, this reflected a broader reduction in institutional exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Some analysts noted that the outflows were heavily concentrated in products that had previously seen the strongest gains, including ETHA, FBTC, and ARKB, suggesting an unwinding of crowded trades rather than a wholesale market exit. Nevertheless, as ETFs shifted from net buying to net selling, a key source of marginal support for Spot prices disappeared.
This week, Bitcoin followed a pattern of gradual decline, accelerated selling, and a rebound from the lows.
October 7–8: BTC traded in the $84,000–$86,000 range. Following the release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes, the price briefly surged toward $87,000 but failed to hold those gains.
October 9–12: BTC gradually moved lower, slipping from around $85,000 to approximately $83,000. ETF outflow data began to weigh on market sentiment.
October 13: BTC plunged intraday, briefly falling below $81,000 to a low of $80,953. The break below $82,000 triggered large-scale long liquidations. Approximately $145 million in positions were liquidated across the market within one hour, with long positions accounting for around 97.5% of the total. BTC-related liquidations exceeded $123 million. The price then rebounded sharply above $83,500, leaving a pronounced lower wick on the candlestick.
As of October 14, Bitcoin was trading near $83,000, with a weekly trading range of approximately $80,953–$87,146.
Other major cryptocurrencies also declined across the board, generally posting larger losses than BTC. Ethereum weakened alongside BTC, briefly falling below $2,500. Solana remained under pressure in the $115–$122 range, while XRP showed relative resilience, trading between $1.45 and $1.52.
Key Support and Resistance Levels: According to an FxPro analyst, $82,000 is a critical support level, having served as resistance before May and now coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally since mid-September. If this support holds, the next upside target is $87,185. If it breaks, the next major support levels lie at the psychological $80,000 mark and the $79,840–$80,100 zone. Glassnode offers another perspective based on investor cost basis: the $88,000 level represents the break-even point for investors who have held BTC for 6–12 months, creating a significant cost-basis resistance barrier. The early-October rebound stalled near $88,000, after which selling pressure eased noticeably. However, this may reflect the clearing of overhead supply rather than a genuine recovery in demand. Asset | Weekly Change | Price Range |
Bitcoin | Approx. -0.5% ~ +0.5% | $83,852 – $87,146 |
Ethereum | Approx. -1% ~ +1% | $2,650 – $2,780 |
Solana | Approx. -2% ~ 0% | $115 – $122 |
XRP | Approx. -1% ~ +1% | $1.44 – $1.52 |
Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap | Approx. -1% ~ 0% | $2.80 – $2.92 Trillion |
Data source: MEXC, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Fortune, Blockchain News
This week, the stablecoin market remained broadly stable, with total market capitalization holding above $315 billion.
According to DefiLlama, as of October 13, the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at approximately $314.8 billion, down slightly by 0.15% over the past seven days and 2.1% over the past 30 days. USDT had a market capitalization of around $186 billion, accounting for approximately 59.1% of the total, while USDC stood at roughly $75.2 billion, representing a 23.9% share.
RLUSD and USDC Continued to Lead Quarterly Growth. According to RWA Foundation, Circle led stablecoin market cap growth in Q3, adding $915 million, followed by Ripple's RLUSD with an increase of $765.3 million. Despite accounting for just 0.8% of the total stablecoin supply, RLUSD recorded the second-largest quarterly increase, pushing its market cap above $2.4 billion. In contrast, USDT, which held a 61% share of the total supply, saw its market cap decline by $207.7 million during the quarter.
Stablecoin Minting on Solana Remained Active. According to SolanaFloor, Circle minted approximately 1.85 billion USDC on the Solana network over the past seven days, down from 2.75 billion the previous week but still at an elevated level. Year to date in 2026, Circle has minted approximately $10.5 billion worth of USDC on Solana.
Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Developments. This week, Visa announced an expansion of its stablecoin cross-border settlement pilot with several European banks, enabling funds to arrive within approximately one hour, including on weekends. In Hong Kong, HSBC released findings from its research on the HKD-pegged stablecoin "HSBC RedCoin," showing that 74% of respondents recognized at least one potential stablecoin use case. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank continued to highlight the risks arising from mismatches between stablecoin redemptions and the settlement of reserve assets.
Structural Signals: Total stablecoin market capitalization remained above $300 billion, but growth momentum is shifting from USDT toward stablecoins such as USDC and RLUSD, which offer stronger regulatory compliance and greater institutional adoption. This trend mirrors the concentration of ETF flows into IBIT, suggesting that institutional capital is increasingly gravitating toward regulated channels and established market leaders.
On October 13, the U.S. stock market marked the fourth anniversary of the current bull market as investors awaited the start of a new earnings season. Amid rising oil prices, pressure on technology stocks including memory chip makers, and cautious sentiment ahead of earnings reports, the three major indices closed mixed.
By the close, the S&P 500 fell 4.30 points, or approximately 0.06%, to 7,807.24. The Nasdaq Composite declined 120.27 points, or around 0.44%, to 27,245.90, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 195.60 points, or approximately 0.38%, to 51,850.55.
Memory chip stocks led the declines. Micron Technology fell 3.88%, SK Hynix dropped 4.02%, Sandisk declined 5.97%, and Kioxia's ADRs slid 6.35%. Several media outlets linked the sell-off in global memory chip stocks to ChangXin Technology's announcement of a major breakthrough in the development of its 4F² DRAM architecture.
Energy and shipping ETFs hit record highs. Driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and the SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (BOAT) both extended their gains to fresh all-time highs.
Meta bucked the trend, rising 3.38%. The company unveiled its Muse Wonder series of AI models, claiming performance that matched or surpassed major competitors on certain benchmarks.
Index | Weekly Change | Key Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
NASDAQ Composite Index | Approx. -0.5% to -1.5% | Pressure from memory chip stocks; cautious sentiment ahead of earnings season | |
S&P 500 Index | Approx. -0.2% to -0.8% | Rising oil prices combined with high U.S. Treasury yields | |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | Approx. +0.3% to +0.8% | Support from energy stocks, demonstrating relative resilience | |
Data source: AP News, CNBC
This week, commodity markets showed a clear divergence, with oil outperforming gold. Crude oil prices reached new highs for the year, driven by three major supply risks: sanctions on Iran, attacks on oil tankers, and hurricane-related production shutdowns. Meanwhile, precious metals faced pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve signals and elevated long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Gold remained range-bound at lower levels, while silver performed even worse.
Crude Oil: Multiple supply risks converged, pushing oil prices to new highs for the year. The U.S. imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran on October 8, attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz surged to wartime highs, and hurricane disruptions temporarily shut down approximately 72% of production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. On October 13, Brent crude settled at $106.65 per barrel, while WTI closed at $93.74 per barrel, with both reaching new highs. Goldman Sachs estimated that the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices reached $22 per barrel in September, the second-highest level on record.
Gold: Hawkish Fed signals weighed on prices, keeping gold in a weak, range-bound trading pattern. Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance, with the probability of a December rate hike rising to 80%–85%. As of October 9, Spot gold in London closed at $4,194.15 per ounce, up 1.24% for the week, after briefly falling below $4,100. Guotai Junan Futures noted that the key tension lies between expectations of further rate hikes and concerns over fiscal instability, with gold expected to remain range-bound at lower levels in the near term.
Silver: Elevated long-term yields continued to weigh on silver prices. Silver underperformed gold, primarily due to persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. On October 13, December silver Futures traded at $59.525 per ounce, down 1.63%. The Silver Institute expects the global silver supply deficit to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026. However, with demand for silver in photovoltaic applications projected to decline by approximately 19% year over year, the market lacks a clear directional catalyst in the near term.
Instrument | Weekly Performance | Key Events | On-chain Mapping |
WTI Crude Oil
| $92 – $95 per barrel | Iran sanctions, tanker attacks, and hurricane-related production shutdowns push oil prices to new highs. | |
Brent Crude Oil | $104 – $107 per barrel | Closed at $106.65 on October 13, with a risk premium of $22 per barrel. | |
Gold | $4,100 – $4,250 per ounce | Hawkish signals weigh on prices, with gold trading range-bound at lower levels after a 1.24% weekly gain. | |
Silver | 59 – 62 USD/oz | Elevated long-term yields, down 1.63% for the week. A wait-and-see approach is preferred. | |
This week, the U.S. Treasury market experienced sharp volatility as yields surged before retreating. On October 7, soaring oil prices and strengthening rate hike expectations pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to an intraday high of 5.365% and the 30-year yield to 5.732%, both reaching their highest levels since 2002. Two key Treasury auctions subsequently helped reverse market sentiment. The $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction on October 7 recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77, while the $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction on October 8 achieved a ratio of 2.54, with demand exceeding expectations in both cases. Combined with Trump's statement that he would not strike Iran before the midterm elections and a retreat in oil prices from recent highs, Treasury yields declined across the board.
As of October 9, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24%, the 2-year yield at 4.80%, and the 30-year yield at 5.61%. When trading resumed after the holiday on October 13, yields declined further as a global sell-off in technology stocks fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The 10-year yield fell to 5.213%, while the 30-year yield dropped to 5.561%.
Instrument | Weekly Change | Key Drivers |
2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.78% – 4.82% (-2 to -4 bps) | Rate hike expectations rise, with short-term yields most sensitive to the policy outlook. |
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield | 5.21% – 5.37% (-5 to -8 bps) | Stronger-than-expected PMI, elevated oil prices, and weak Treasury auctions push yields to their highest levels since 2007. |
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield | 5.56% – 5.73% (-5 to -10 bps) | Long-end supply pressure and inflation expectations keep yields at their highest levels since 2004. |
Key Market Dynamics: This week, bond market pricing repeatedly shifted between inflation risks and safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated that most officials believed another rate hike might be necessary before year-end. However, markets priced in only about a 20% probability of an October rate hike, compared with approximately 70% for December. Fed officials, including Williams and Collins, leaned toward one more rate hike this year but emphasized that the timing would depend on incoming economic data. The traditionally positive correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar broke down in October, as yields declined while the dollar remained strong. This divergence reflected how fiscal concerns in France weighed on the euro, offsetting the impact of easing U.S. rate hike expectations.
October has historically been a relatively strong month for Bitcoin, with BTC posting gains in at least eight of the past ten Octobers. However, this October has started in sharp contrast to historical seasonal patterns, as crypto Spot ETFs experienced broad-based net outflows, putting pressure on both BTC and ETH.
The key takeaway from this divergence is that ETF flows have become a major driver of short-term price movements. When ETFs shift from sustained inflows to persistent outflows, even favorable seasonal trends may struggle to provide meaningful price support.
On October 8, the U.S. government transferred approximately $1.01 billion worth of Bitcoin, triggering market concerns. According to Arkham data, the wallet involved previously held Bitcoin seized in connection with the Bitfinex hack. Two outgoing transactions were made to two new addresses, neither of which was identified as belonging to a trading platform.
Key Takeaway: Transfers Do Not Equal Sales. Current evidence suggests these transactions were more likely transfers between wallets, with no direct signs of selling. Changes in custody arrangements and compensation payments to victims are both plausible explanations. However, markets trade on expectations rather than confirmed facts. When government-controlled wallets move thousands of BTC to institutional-grade infrastructure, fears of additional supply eventually entering the market can prompt traders to reduce exposure before any actual selling occurs.
What to Watch: The U.S. government reportedly holds approximately 329,693 BTC remaining from the Bitfinex case. Any further transfers will be closely monitored by the market.
Ethereum's next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, has completed its final validation on the Sepolia testnet, with no major issues reported.
Key Upgrade Features: The upgrade consists of Gloas at the consensus layer and Amsterdam at the execution layer, incorporating 18 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). Among the most notable is EIP-7732 (ePBS), which enshrines proposer-builder separation at the protocol level, extending the time available for validators to verify transactions from approximately 4 seconds to 9 seconds. EIP-7928 (BAL) introduces block-level access lists, enabling parallel transaction validation. Ethereum Foundation researcher Toni Wahrstätter described the upgrade as the largest throughput expansion since Ethereum's launch, with a target to raise the block Gas limit from 60 million to approximately 200 million.
Impact on ETH: Glamsterdam's activation on the Sepolia testnet does not directly affect ETH prices, but it marks a significant step in validating Ethereum's Layer 1 scaling roadmap. The next step is deployment on the Hoodi testnet, tentatively scheduled for October 27, with the mainnet launch targeted for Q4 2026. If launched on schedule, the upgrade could strengthen Ethereum's competitive position in Layer 1 performance.
Ranking | Keyword | Core Driver | On-Chain Mapping |
1 | Crypto ETF "Uptober" Expectations Disappoint | Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $678.9 million in net outflows in the first week of October, with IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB all seeing substantial outflows. |
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2 | U.S. Government Moves $1.01 Billion in BTC | Wallet activity linked to the Bitfinex case raises market concerns over additional BTC supply entering circulation. | |
3 | Ethereum Glamsterdam Testnet Activated | Activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, with L1 scaling entering its final validation phase ahead of mainnet deployment. | |
4 | September CPI Data Release | The final inflation report before the Fed's October meeting, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% month over month. | |
5 | Oil Prices Surge Past $100 | Iran sanctions, tanker attacks, and hurricane-related production shutdowns push Brent crude to $106.65 per barrel. | |
6 | Citi Lifts BTC Target to $113,000 | Bullish on ETF inflows and an improving regulatory environment, with an implied upside of nearly 35%. | |
Economic Calendar (October 14 – October 20, SGT)
Date | Event/Indicator | Market Impact | Tokenized Target |
Oct 14, 2026, 12:30 (UTC) | U.S. September CPI Inflation Data | Markets expect headline CPI to rise 0.6% month over month and 3.6% year over year, while core CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year. If core inflation exceeds expectations, the possibility of an October rate hike could resurface. | |
Oct 15 (Thu) 12:30 (UTC) | U.S. September PPI & Retail Sales | Wholesale inflation and consumer spending resilience indicators used to calculate core PCE inflation. | |
Ongoing Tracking | Crypto ETF Fund Flows | Whether BTC and ETH ETFs can reverse their net outflow trends. | BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT |
Ongoing Tracking | U.S. Government BTC Holdings | Whether the BTC has been confirmed sold or merely transferred to a different custodian. | BTC/USDT
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Continuous Tracking | Ethereum "Glamsterdam" Mainnet Launch | Mainnet launch timeline following Hoodi testnet activation.
| |
Data Outlook: The September CPI report will be the final inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 meeting and could directly influence market expectations for the Fed's policy path. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady in October, while the probability of a December rate hike stands at approximately 70%. If monthly core CPI comes in at 0.2%, rate hike expectations are unlikely to rise significantly. However, a reading of 0.3% could increase the likelihood of a rate hike this month.
On October 12 at 18:00 (UTC+8), MEXC expanded its Spot Recurring Investment feature to support more than 60 additional assets, including AEVO, AIXBT, ANIME, APE, AR, and AXS. Users can automate purchases of supported Spot trading pairs through Recurring Investment, gradually build positions, and reduce the need to time the market precisely.
On October 9, MEXC CEO Vugar Usi Zade and Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO of Payward, Kraken's parent company, held a fireside chat at the MEXC Stage during TOKEN2049 Singapore to discuss opportunities for broader collaboration between the two trading platforms. Both executives highlighted infrastructure, market access, and distribution as key areas where greater connectivity between platforms could create value. Vugar Usi Zade described "trust and access" as the two most important elements in building the next generation of financial platforms, while Arjun Sethi emphasized the importance of transparency as the industry becomes increasingly interconnected. Building on earlier signals of potential cooperation between the two companies, the discussion pointed toward a future of deeper convergence between crypto and traditional finance.
Why Focus on This Track?
Amid broad-based ETF outflows and pressure on crypto-native assets, tokenized U.S. stocks stand out as one of the few sectors making structural progress against the broader market downturn. This sector represents the long-term trend of bringing traditional assets on-chain, aligning with the stablecoin market's shift from USDT toward more regulated alternatives.
This Week's Developments: On October 8, tokenization platform Securitize announced the launch of Securitize Stocks, bringing 12 U.S. stocks to the Solana blockchain, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet (Google), Tesla, Meta, Amazon, Netflix, Circle, Strategy, and Palantir. Core Features:
1:1 Backing by Underlying Shares: Each token is backed 1:1 by actual shares and represents a security entitlement under Article 8 of the U.S. Uniform Commercial Code (UCC), retaining dividend rights and voting rights where applicable.
No Share Lending: The underlying shares backing the tokens are not lent out, fundamentally distinguishing these products from alternatives that provide only price exposure.
Convertible Structure: The products use a Convertible Equity Token (CET) structure, allowing investors to convert their security entitlements into actual shares registered on the issuer's shareholder register once the issuer implements tokenization.
Settlement and Liquidity: Initial trading takes place on Solana, with settlement in USDC and market-making support provided by Jump Trading.
Disclaimer: This report is for research and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events and macroeconomic developments may significantly impact the market. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned in this report are presented solely for objective informational purposes and do not constitute recommendations to buy or sell.