How these key crypto regulatory dates in Q2 will affect the industry

Hey all, Aleks here.

All eyes are on the US Senate.

More than eight months after the House of Representatives passed a market structure bill called the Clarity Act, Senators continue to negotiate the details of their own version.

That bill would create a long-sought regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US. It’s hard to overstate how much the industry wants it to pass — without it, US regulators will likely resurrect their Biden-era campaign to bring crypto to heel, one advocate recently warned.

But Senators keep missing self-imposed soft deadlines.

On March 17, Senator Tim Scott said he expected to see a fresh draft by the end of the week. Just a couple of days later, senators announced they had struck an “agreement in principle” with the White House. But they have yet to release a draft or to schedule a committee vote.

Time is of the essence. The midterm elections this November are expected to end Republicans’ total control of the federal government and, with it, the industry’s best shot at codifying light-touch regulations.

“The big date I'm looking at isAugust recess,” Cody Carbone, CEO of The Digital Chamber, told DL News last month. “I want to get a bill done before members of Congress go home for the summer, and then it becomes full-on political campaign season.”

But another observer thinks the do-or-die moment will come even sooner. Without further ado, here are the key regulatory dates to circle in the second quarter of 2026.

May 1

Alex Thorn, a senior researcher at the crypto firm Galaxy Digital said the Clarity Act’s odds of success will plummet if it doesn’t make it out of committee by the end of April.

“This needs to hit the Senate floor by early May,” he wrote on X last month. “Floor time is running out, and the odds diminish [with] every day that passes.”

In March, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins told the Crypto in America podcast the agency would release its much-anticipated “innovation exemption” within “the next few weeks.”

He suggested the exact timing of its release was up to the Office of Management and Budget.

“They’re the ones who are the last step,” he said. “They look at what agencies of the government are about to promulgate, and they’re trying to be a good review for the administration. Don’t begrudge them that.”

That exemption would let entrepreneurs “immediately enter the market with new technologies and business models” without having to comply with “incompatible or burdensome” regulations, so long as they meet certain conditions, Atkins previously said.

May 15

Jerome Powell’s term as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors ends on May 15.

US President Donald Trump has attacked Powell over his refusal to cut interest rates more aggressively. Low interest rates are good for consumer spending and for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

The president’s nominee to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh, is seen as a more pliable successor.

The central bank sets US monetary policy. High interest rates make it more expensive to borrow, which puts a damper on high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrency.

A more dovish approach to monetary policy could fuel a crypto rally — but it could also rekindle inflation, one of the issues that fuelled Trump’s return to the White House.

With “affordability” the new buzzword in American politics, Trump’s pick for Fed chair won’t just impact crypto prices in 2026, but it could also impact the race for the presidency in 2028.

May 19

Alabama voters will head to the polls on May 19 to choose a Republican and a Democrat to face off in the November general election.

And the crypto industry knows who it wants: Republican Congressman Barry Moore.

Moore has received more than $5 million from Defend American Jobs, a crypto-focused super PAC that supports conservative candidates. No other candidate in the race has received crypto money, according to Follow the Crypto, a website tracking industry donations to US politicians.

Moore is one of several Republicans vying to replace outgoing Senator Tommy Tuberville, a former college football coach who is vacating his seat to run for Alabama governor.

Moore led a March 9 poll with 22% of the vote but nearly half of voters were still undecided, suggesting the race was far from a done deal. A more recent poll suggested he was stuck in a three-way tie despite an endorsement from Trump.

The industry lost its first major test of the year when an Elizabeth Warren-backed candidate in Illinois, Juliana Stratton, won the Democratic primary for the US Senate. She came out on top despite facing millions of dollars in negative ads funded by crypto-focused super PACs.

This isn’t the only race to watch over the next three months.

Senator Andy Barr, a Republican from Kentucky, is facing two challengers in a May 19 primary election. He’s received donations from several crypto executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Andreessen Horowitz founder Marc Andreessen, and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.

That trio — and many other industry executives — have also donated to pro-crypto Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York.

His primary election is June 23. Over in Texas, a crypto-focused super PAC called Protect Progress has donated $1.5 million to Congressional Democrat Cristian Menefee, who is facing a colleague, Al Green, in a May 26 runoff due to redistricting.

July 1

July 1 might technically be the start of the third quarter, but it’s worth a mention given the import of the regulations coming into force that day.

The EU passed its own crypto market structure regulations years ago. On July 1, its grace period comes to an end, and crypto companies that are not compliant will have to leave the bloc.

The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, better known as MiCA, contains the following grandfathering clause: “Crypto-asset service providers that provided their services in accordance with applicable law before 30 December 2024, may continue to do so until 1 July 2026 or until they are granted or refused an authorisation pursuant to [MiCA], whichever is sooner.”

Counties with grandfathering periods that extend to July 1 include Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, and Romania.