Zarif proposes US-Iran peace plan as ceasefire odds drop to 2% for April 7

Mohammad Javad Zarif has proposed a peace plan involving nuclear curbs between Iran and the US. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 2% YES, down from 8% just 24 hours ago.

Zarif’s proposal emerges amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. The ceasefire markets show slight optimism for later dates. The April 30 market is at 24% YES, while May 31 stands at 46% YES, suggesting traders expect a diplomatic breakthrough within two months. The largest jump in odds occurs between April 30 and May 31.

The market has seen a 24-hour USDC volume at $535,930. The order book depth varies, with $25,832 needed to move the April 7 market by 5 percentage points, indicating smaller players can influence short-term odds. The largest move was a 4-point drop in the May 31 market as traders adjusted positions following Zarif’s proposal.

Zarif’s plan is significant but hasn’t dramatically swayed short-term odds. Traders remain cautious due to Iran’s hardliner stance and Trump’s unpredictability. At 24¢, a YES share in the April 30 ceasefire market pays $1 if resolved, a 4.2x return. Belief in resumed talks or an intermediary breakthrough within four weeks would make this a wise bet.

Watch for signals of intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, or changes in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian hardliners. These would indicate potential shifts in ceasefire odds.