Bitcoin Outperforms Gold and S&P 500 After Global Crises, Study Finds

TLDR

• Mercado Bitcoin research shows Bitcoin beats gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days after major global shocks
• After Trump’s 2025 tariff announcement, Bitcoin rose 24% vs gold’s 8% and S&P 500’s 4%
• During the current U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin is up 2.2% while gold is down 11% and the S&P 500 is down 4.4%
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.32 billion in March while gold ETFs saw $2.92 billion in outflows
• ETF analyst James Seyffart says Bitcoin ETFs will eventually be larger than gold ETFs

A new study from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin found that Bitcoin tends to post stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 in the two months after major global crises.

The research was led by Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin. His team looked at 60-day windows following economic and geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 outbreak and U.S. tariff escalations.

After the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025, Bitcoin climbed 24% over the next 60 days. Gold rose 8% and the S&P 500 gained just 4% in the same window.

A similar pattern played out at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Bitcoin rose 21%, while gold and the S&P 500 both trailed behind.

He explained that investors often sell assets quickly during a crisis to raise cash, which can drag down even safe-haven assets in the short term.

Bitcoin Holds Steady During U.S.-Iran Conflict

The pattern appears to be playing out again during the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Bitcoin has risen around 2.2%, moving from roughly $65,800 to $67,300.

Gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven, has dropped around 11% over the same stretch. The S&P 500 has fallen 4.4%, its steepest monthly drop since 2022.

Szuster noted that Bitcoin was the best-performing asset over the past decade, despite its well-known price swings.

Bitcoin ETFs Draw Investor Interest Away From Gold

ETF analyst James Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management.

Recent fund flow data backs up the shift in sentiment. In March, US-based gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.92 billion. Over the same period, US spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in $1.32 billion in net inflows.

The largest US gold ETF recorded a $3 billion single-day outflow on March 4, the largest daily withdrawal in over two years.

Both assets have fallen over the past 30 days. Bitcoin is down around 8% and gold is down around 8.25%, showing they have moved broadly in step despite the difference in ETF flows.

In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold and Bitcoin have historically taken turns outperforming each other.

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