Binance Bitcoin Retail Investors Are on Break, What’s Next for BTC Price?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin retail activity on Binance falls since nearly 9 years due to the spot BTC ETF launch and moving capital into stocks and commodities.
• BTC shows a historical monthly trend seen in February, March, and April.
• Bitcoin LTH SOPR rose to 45.5, showing a strong wave of realized gains from long-term holders.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders on Binance have reduced their activity over the past 9 years. Also, the price of BTC continued its volatility seen in the past few months through April, but long-term holders are cashing out as the market awaits future rebounds.

Bitcoin Traders Reduce Activity on Binance

Darkfost, a market analyst at onchain data analytics platform Santiment, shared details of reduced Bitcoin retail activity on Binance.

According to the analyst, retail investor activity in Bitcoin price has dropped to its lowest level in nearly 9 years.

Darkfost measured retail activity specifically by looking at small Bitcoin inflows to Binance.

These are deposits of less than 1 BTC at a time. He used Binance as a reference because it is popular for retail traders and handles the highest volumes in this segment.

In his post, Darkfost shared a chart that showed the current 30-day moving average of small inflows has fallen to 332 BTC. This is the lowest seen since Binance launched in 2017.

Simply explained, very few small investors are currently depositing fresh Bitcoin onto Binance. The CryptoQuant analyst went to highlight several factors that are causing the structural and behavioral shifts in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin Binance Activity Hits 9-Year Low | Source: Darkfost

Firstly, he noted that more people are leaving BTC on exchanges instead of withdrawing to personal wallets. Reasons include convenience, easier access via more exchanges, and a perception that third-party custody is safer.

Additionally, many investors no longer need to buy and hold BTC on exchanges like Binance since the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. They can simply buy ETF shares through traditional brokers.

Furthermore, some small investors may have moved capital into stocks or commodities, which have performed well recently, pulling interest away from BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Historical Bottom Levels

Meanwhile, BTC price is still facing volatility, currently trading around $66,843. Within the past week, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has been down 1.3%, but the coin is up slightly by 0.8% in the past day.

The latest drop in BTC price has raised speculations and discussions within the crypto community. Some market participants have blamed the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech for the latest Bitcoin price drops.

However, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen shared a contrary opinion. In his latest X post, Cowen noted that Bitcoin has shown a fairly consistent seasonal behavior as seen in the past U.S. midterm years.

This has further fueled speculations, especially amid the Binance news.

Bitcoin Price Bottom | Source: Benjamin Cowen

He pointed out that February often forms a low for the year, while March sees a rally that makes a lower high. The price goes up, but does not exceed the previous major peak from late the previous year.

Subsequently, the price tends to drop back down again in April, showing renewed weakness. Cowen pointed out that 2026 is tracking this pattern closely so far.

Bitcoin hit a low in February, had some upward movement in March, and is now experiencing the typical April weakness.

BTC LTH Profit Analysis Amid Focus on Binance News

Amid the Bitcoin traders’ behavior on Binance, cryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has highlighted a sharp spike in Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) SOPR

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether coins being moved on the blockchain are sold at a profit or loss.

As revealed by Maartunn, BTC LTH SOPR has increased to 45.55. A reading of 45.55 is extremely high and means some long-term holders just realized massive gains.

They are possibly selling coins bought years earlier at very low prices, now at the current BTC at around $66,000.

Their actions mirror a pattern of distribution, while retail is relatively quiet. It signals that supply from strong hands is hitting the market, which could spark a near term BTC price rebound.

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