Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Price Prediction: Drop to $60K Before $250K Rally

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped ~1.5% last week while the S&P 500 fell ~10% in two days
• Charles Schwab will launch direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in H1 2026
• Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 before reaching $250,000
• A bearish chartist predicts Bitcoin could crash to $12,000–$13,000 by mid-2027
• Post-crisis research shows Bitcoin historically outperforms gold and the S&P 500 within 60 days

Bitcoin had a calmer week than stocks. While the S&P 500 dropped roughly 10% in two days, Bitcoin fell only about 1.5%. That gap has made some investors look at crypto differently.

The drop in stocks came as President Trump’s tariff announcements rattled global markets. Bitcoin held above $66,000 through most of it, recovering to around $67,300 while equities kept sliding.

Charles Schwab, which manages nearly $12 trillion in client assets, announced it will launch direct spot trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The new “Schwab Crypto” account is expected in the first half of 2026.

The move is different from exchange-traded funds. Customers will be able to hold crypto in the same account as their stocks and bonds.

Hayes Says Wait for the Fed

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, is not bullish right now. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, he said he would not put his last dollar into Bitcoin at this moment.

His reason: the Federal Reserve has not yet been forced to expand liquidity. Hayes believes tariffs will eventually anger voters enough that the U.S. shifts to capital controls instead.

Those capital controls, he argues, would act as a major catalyst for Bitcoin. He keeps a long-term price target of $250,000 to $750,000 for Bitcoin by the end of this cycle.

But he also warned that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could push Bitcoin below $60,000 in the short term. He also flagged AI-driven job losses as a risk that could cause a deflationary credit crisis.

What the Data Shows

Research from Mercado Bitcoin looked at the 60 days after major global shocks, including past tariff escalations and the COVID-19 outbreak. It found Bitcoin consistently outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 in those periods.

Bitcoin often drops first during a crisis as investors move to cash. But it has historically bounced back faster and harder than traditional assets.

Not everyone agrees a floor is near. A chartist known as King of the Charts sees Bitcoin bottoming between $51,000 and $53,000, then crashing 80% to 90% to around $12,000 by mid-2027.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has been in “Extreme Fear” for weeks, with readings near single digits.

Hayes, speaking separately with David Lin, said simply buying Bitcoin is the best way to get ahead of fiat currency debasement, especially now that stock picking has become harder.

The Schwab launch is set for the first half of 2026.

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