Energy security amid geopolitical risks

Even before the raging crisis in the Middle East, energy security has long been a strategic priority for the Philippines. The challenge has always been twofold: ensuring a sufficient supply today while building a system that remains stable and resilient in the future.

Part of this strategy is a gradual transition to renewable energy (RE). The government has set clear targets: 35% of the power generation mix by 2030, 50% by 2040, and over 50% by 2050. These are not just environmental goals — they are central to reducing the country’s long-term dependence on imported fuels.

Recent developments appeared to support this transition. In January, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. announced the discovery of a new natural gas resource, Malampaya East-1, near the existing Malampaya field. This raised hopes of extending the life of a critical domestic energy source that has powered much of Luzon for over two decades. At a time when Malampaya’s output has been declining and import dependence increasing, the discovery offered a measure of reassurance.

But the global environment shifted quickly.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 identified geoeconomic confrontation as the top global risk. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have since underscored this reality, disrupting supply chains, driving oil price volatility, and reshaping geopolitical dynamics. For fuel-importing countries like the Philippines, these disruptions have immediate and tangible consequences.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most vessels has tightened the global oil supply and driven up prices. For the Philippines, this translates into higher fuel costs, increased inflationary pressure, and greater exposure to external shocks. More urgently, it has brought supply security to the forefront. Government estimates suggesting that the country may have only around two months’ worth of fuel reserves highlight the scale of vulnerability.

To its credit, the administration has responded with urgency. President Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 110, declaring a state of National Energy Emergency and authorizing the Department of Energy (DoE) to implement measures to strengthen fuel resilience. The order empowers key institutions, including the Philippine National Oil Co. and its exploration arm, to secure additional supply.

The government has since moved to diversify procurement, sourcing fuel from countries such as Japan and Russia, with expected deliveries from Malaysia, Singapore, and Oman. It is also in discussions with other partners, including India, Brunei, and South Korea. Complementing these efforts, the Department of Budget and Management has released P20 billion to fund the acquisition of additional oil reserves.

These are necessary steps. But they are, by nature, temporary.

Even as the government works to stabilize supply and contain price pressures in the immediate term, the broader challenge remains: building an energy system that is resilient, diversified, and less vulnerable to external shocks.

This requires accelerating the development of alternative energy sources and strengthening partnerships that support both energy security and national interest. The Philippine Energy Plan already reflects this direction, emphasizing reduced import dependence and greater system resilience.

Encouragingly, the Philippines is not without credible partners.

In renewable energy, countries such as Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and several European states are supporting investments and technical cooperation in offshore wind, solar, and grid integration. Partners including Australia, the United States, and Canada are contributing to project development, financing, and clean energy innovation.

In liquefied natural gas (LNG), cooperation with countries such as Japan and Switzerland helps ensure stable supply during the transition period. Meanwhile, as the Philippines explores the inclusion of civil nuclear energy in its power mix, countries including France, South Korea, Canada, the United States, and Japan have emerged as potential partners in developing safe and reliable nuclear capacity.

Against this backdrop, proposals for joint energy exploration with China in the West Philippine Sea have resurfaced. While such ideas may arise in times of uncertainty, they must be assessed with caution.

Energy partnerships are not purely economic arrangements — they are strategic decisions with long-term implications. It is therefore essential that the Philippines work with partners that respect a rules-based order and uphold the country’s sovereignty and national integrity. Short-term supply concerns should not come at the expense of long-term strategic interests.

It is also important to recognize that the Philippines has viable alternatives. The recent natural gas discovery in Camago-3, following the Malampaya East-1 announcement, demonstrates that Filipino private sector actors have both the technical capability and financial capacity to contribute meaningfully to the country’s energy supply chain.

The current situation underscores a familiar but urgent lesson: energy security cannot be treated as a purely short-term problem. Supply must be secured in times of crisis, but resilience must be built over time.

In moments of disruption, the temptation is to focus solely on immediate needs. But lasting energy security depends on more than access to fuel. It requires diversification, strategic foresight, and partnerships anchored in trust.

The Philippines must therefore continue to act on both fronts — ensuring supply today while strengthening the foundations of a more secure and resilient energy future.

Victor Andres “Dindo” C. Manhit is the president of the Stratbase ADR Institute.