Stocks Are Surging and Oil Is Tanking — The Iran Ceasefire Just Flipped the Market

TLDR

• U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz
• Dow futures jumped over 1,300 points; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures surged up to 3.5%
• Oil prices crashed, with Brent crude falling nearly 15% and WTI dropping around 17%
• Bitcoin surged above $70,000; Ethereum and XRP also rallied on the news
• Gold jumped 3.3% as traders priced in a lower chance of prolonged inflation

President Trump announced late Tuesday that the U.S. would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed shortly after that his country would allow safe passage through the waterway if attacks were halted.

Trump posted on Truth Social just after midnight that the U.S. would help manage traffic buildup in the strait. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council approved the terms.

The news triggered an immediate reaction across global markets. Investors who had been sitting on the sidelines moved quickly back into risk assets.

Dow Jones futures climbed 1,306 points, or about 2.8%. S&P 500 futures rose 2.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 3.5%, leading the gains.

The three major indexes had struggled for direction the session before, with investors worried about Trump’s threats to strike Iranian infrastructure including bridges and power plants.

Oil Takes the Hardest Hit

Oil prices dropped sharply on the ceasefire news. Brent crude futures fell nearly 15% to around $94.69 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate dropped roughly 17% to about $96.22 a barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile-wide waterway through which a large share of global oil supply passes. Its potential reopening removed a major supply-shock premium from oil markets.

The drop in oil prices fed expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume interest rate cuts. Lower energy prices reduce inflation pressure, giving the Fed more room to act.

Fed minutes from the March meeting were due for release Wednesday and were expected to offer clues on how policymakers viewed the Iran conflict’s economic impact.

Crypto and Gold Join the Rally

Bitcoin climbed above $70,000. Ethereum and XRP also rose as crypto markets joined the broader risk-on rally.

Gold futures jumped 3.3% to $4,840 an ounce. Lower rate expectations tend to boost gold, since the metal becomes more attractive when bond yields fall.

The dollar fell 1% against a basket of major currencies. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped 6 basis points to 4.24%.

Airlines in Focus

Delta Air Lines was scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opened Wednesday. Investors were watching closely after flights were grounded and jet fuel costs surged during the conflict.

Iran’s Foreign Minister confirmed on X that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces” for the two-week period.

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