Bitcoin Rally Gains Strength as Hidden Cycle Warning Emerges

• Bitcoin holds macro strength above key levels, but cycle data signals possible short-term downside.
• Ceasefire-driven risk relief pushed BTC above $71K, with volume and participation rising.
• Short liquidations dominated with $427.51M, confirming strong upward momentum in derivatives markets.

Bitcoin price action is showing renewed strength in early April, yet long-term cycle models continue to point to potential downside before the next major expansion phase. Data shared by PlanB indicates that while Bitcoin remains aligned with historical growth patterns, its current position within the cycle shows further consolidation or drawdown may still occur before a new all-time high is reached.

Long-Term Models Show Strength With Cyclical Pressure

Bitcoin’s macro structure continues to hold above key indicators, including the 200-week moving average and realized price. This positioning shows ongoing long-term strength, even as the asset moves through periodic corrections. Cycle-based indicators, including drawdown zones, show that previous peaks have transitioned into cooling phases before recovery resumes.

Recent price behavior appears to be in line with prior mid-to-late-cycle stages. At the same time, data show that losses have decreased over follow-up cycles, pointing to a changing market structure and more stable investor positioning.

The Stock-to-Flow model continues to project higher valuations over the current halving period. Estimates put the average price near $500,000 between 2024 and 2028, although current market levels remain below that level.

Market Rebound Follows Geopolitical De-Escalation

In the short term, Bitcoin has moved higher following a reduction in geopolitical risk tied to the U.S.-Iran war. A two-week conditional ceasefire, reached shortly before a military deadline, eased concerns around escalation and reduced uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the announcement, Bitcoin, along with other major digital assets, recorded gains. Market data show Bitcoin rising 4.09% over 24 hours to approximately $71,604.78 after rebounding from intraday lows near $68,000. The asset briefly traded above the $72,000 level before stabilizing.

The trading activity also increased during the move. The trading volume rose by 33.88% to $47.85 billion, while market capitalization reached $1.43 trillion.

Liquidations Highlight Short-Term Momentum Shift

Derivatives data show that the upward move led to large liquidations, particularly among short positions. Total liquidations reached $596.23 million over 24 hours, with $427.51 million attributed to shorts compared to $168.72 million in long positions.

Short-dominated liquidations were also observed across shorter timeframes. Over 12 hours, $510.50 million in positions were liquidated, with shorts accounting for $400.29 million. In the 4-hour and 1-hour windows, liquidations totaled $14.54 million and $4.47 million, respectively, with shorts continuing to lead.

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