CoreWeave vs Nebius: Which AI Cloud Stock Has More Upside?

TLDR

• CoreWeave reported $4.92B in 2025 revenue with a $66.8B backlog, but carries ~$14B in debt and plans $30–35B in capex for 2026
• Nebius posted $227.7M in 2025 revenue and holds $3.7B in cash, targeting $7–9B ARR by end of 2026
• Nebius signed a $3B, five-year deal with Meta in late 2025, following an earlier large Microsoft agreement
• Analysts rate both stocks Moderate Buy — CoreWeave’s average target is $121.06, Nebius’s is $157.09
• CoreWeave offers proven scale; Nebius offers earlier-stage upside with a cleaner balance sheet

CoreWeave and Nebius are both part of the growing “neocloud” category. These companies provide GPU-heavy cloud capacity for AI workloads, rather than acting as traditional broad cloud providers.

Both stocks have drawn investor attention. But they tell very different stories.

CoreWeave went public recently and quickly became one of the most talked-about names in AI infrastructure. The company reported $4.92 billion in 2025 revenue. It also ended the year with a $66.8 billion revenue backlog.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV

That backlog gives CoreWeave strong forward visibility. It shows that demand for independent AI cloud capacity is holding up.

But the business is expensive to run. CoreWeave spent $14.9 billion in capital expenditure in 2025 and plans to spend $30 to $35 billion in 2026. The company also carries around $14 billion in debt, plus large lease liabilities.

CoreWeave is growing fast, but it requires a lot of capital to do so. That makes it as much an execution and financing story as a demand story.

Nebius: Smaller Base, Cleaner Books

Nebius is much earlier in its growth curve. The company reported $227.7 million in 2025 revenue and ended the year with $1.25 billion in annual recurring revenue.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Nebius also holds around $3.7 billion in cash. That gives it room to invest without immediately taking on heavy debt.

Management is targeting $7 to $9 billion in ARR by the end of 2026. That is an aggressive goal from a relatively small base.

The company has also secured deals with large customers. Nebius signed a $3 billion, five-year contract with Meta in late 2025. It also completed an earlier large deal with Microsoft.

Those agreements show that major AI companies are willing to use newer, specialist cloud providers for capacity.

What Analysts Think

Wall Street is constructive on both names. CoreWeave has a Moderate Buy consensus from 32 analysts, with 19 buys, 11 holds, and 2 sells. The average price target is $121.06.

Nebius also holds a Moderate Buy rating, with 2 Strong Buys, 9 Buys, 1 Hold, and 1 Sell. Its average price target is $157.09.

Both targets suggest analysts see room for gains, but for different reasons.

CoreWeave is easier to model. Its revenue and backlog are large and well-documented.

Nebius depends more on future growth hitting its targets. That makes it harder to value, but potentially more rewarding if it delivers.

Final Thoughts

CoreWeave is the larger, more proven business. Nebius is the earlier-stage bet with a cleaner balance sheet. The choice between them comes down to how much risk an investor is willing to take on for potential upside.

Nebius’s average analyst price target of $157.09 sits above CoreWeave’s $121.06, which reflects the higher growth expectations baked into the smaller company.

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