Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow Drops as Oil Jumps Amid Uncertainty

S&P 500 futures slip 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures edge down 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures fall 175 points, or 0.4%, as markets pull back early Thursday. The dip follows a strong rally in the previous session. Investors now reassess risks as oil prices climb again. 

Markets Pause After Historic Rally

Wall Street delivered a powerful rebound on Wednesday. The S&P 500 surged 2.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than 1,300 points, marking its best performance since April 2025.

This sharp move followed news of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Investors initially welcomed the development, expecting reduced geopolitical risk and improved market stability. However, the optimism now faces a reality check.

Futures trading suggests that traders are locking in gains rather than extending the rally. The shift highlights how quickly sentiment can change. Are markets simply consolidating, or does this signal deeper concerns?

Ceasefire Doubts Keep Tensions Elevated

The two-week ceasefire agreement hinges on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran agreed to allow passage through the key waterway, provided all attacks stop. Reports also indicate that Israel supports the arrangement.

Despite these commitments, uncertainty remains high. Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States of violating the agreement shortly after it took effect. He cited continued military activity and disputes over nuclear policy.

At the same time, President Donald Trump warned that U.S. forces will remain in position until Iran fully complies. He also signaled a strong response to any breach. This stance keeps geopolitical risk firmly in focus.

Shipping data raises further concerns. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered meaningfully. Only a limited number of bulk carriers have passed through, while oil shipments remain constrained. If this trend continues, supply disruptions could persist. Will the ceasefire hold long enough to restore normal flows?

Oil Rebound Pressures Equities

Oil prices moved higher again, reversing part of the sharp decline seen after the ceasefire announcement. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5% to trade above $99 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 4% to hover above $98.

This rebound reflects ongoing concerns about supply constraints. Even with a ceasefire in place, the lack of shipping activity keeps markets on edge. Rising oil prices often weigh on equities, as higher energy costs can impact corporate margins and consumer spending.

Market strategists point to continued risks in the near term. With multiple parties involved and key conditions still unresolved, volatility may persist. Investors now monitor developments closely, knowing that any shift could move markets quickly.

Economic Data Adds Another Layer

Beyond geopolitics, investors also assess fresh economic data. The personal consumption expenditure index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% year over year. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, matched expectations.

At the same time, jobless claims came in higher than anticipated. Initial claims reached 219,000, exceeding the consensus estimate of 210,000. This increase suggests some softening in the labor market.