- Iran’s $2M per ship Bitcoin toll could drive demand of 3,611 BTC daily vs 450 BTC mined.
- BTC faces key resistance at $74.8K, and failure to break this keeps the rally short-term.
- On-chain data shows price still below $84.8K STH cost basis and $97K macro resistance.
Iran is moving to charge oil tankers up to $2 million per ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with payments requested in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is trading around $71,000, which means each ship would need roughly 28 BTC. Before the conflict, around 130 ships crossed the strait daily. This implies a potential demand of 3,611 BTC per day, over 108,000 BTC per month, and close to 1.3 million BTC per year.
For context, the Bitcoin network only produces about 450 BTC per day. The scale of this demand, if enforced, would exceed the daily mining supply multiple times over.
Sanctions Drive Crypto Payment Transition
The move is directly related to sanctions pressure, as Iran is seeking payment rails that cannot be frozen or blocked through the traditional dollar system.
Under the proposed system, ships must submit cargo details in advance. Iranian authorities assess the shipment and give a short window to complete payment in Bitcoin before allowing passage.
The ceasefire with the United States has not changed this structure, and passage remains conditional and under Iranian military coordination.
Bitcoin Demand Shock Meets Weak Structure
The Bitcoin market has already reacted to geopolitical headlines. Price jumped roughly 7% during the ceasefire news, hitting a high of $72K, and is trading between $70,000-$71,000.
The daily chart shows a recovery from $66,797 to above $70,000 since late March, with resistance sitting near $74,800. If that level breaks, the next upside target sits near $86,000, representing a potential 15% move.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin remains below key structural levels, with the short-term holder realized price sitting around $84,800. The 365-day moving average is even higher, near $97,000.
Historically, a sustained bull market has required Bitcoin to reclaim both levels, which has yet to be seen. Even a move toward $82,000-$85,000 would only bring the price back toward the short-term holder cost basis, not confirm a full trend reversal.
Macro conditions also remain tight, with high interest rates and limited liquidity still capping upside. Interestingly, the key variable is whether Iran can enforce Bitcoin payments at scale.
If even a fraction of daily shipping demand shifts to BTC, it creates consistent buy pressure that exceeds new supply.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Hits Three-Week High As US-Iran Ceasefire Lifts Risk Assets
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Source: https://coinedition.com/iran-wants-hormuz-fee-in-bitcoin-will-crypto-rebound/
