TSMC (TSM) Stock Jumps 45% in March Revenue as AI Demand Keeps Rolling

TLDR

• TSMC’s March revenue jumped 45.2% year-on-year to T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion)
• Q1 total revenue hit T$1.134 trillion, beating Bloomberg estimates of T$1.12 trillion
• Revenue was up 35% year-over-year for the full quarter, versus T$839.25 billion a year ago
• Wall Street expects Q1 EPS of $3.27, up more than 50% from a year ago
• Full Q1 earnings are due Thursday, April 16; analysts see an average 16% upside in the stock

TSMC posted a strong March, with monthly revenue climbing 45.2% year-on-year to T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion). That also represented a 30.7% jump from February.

The result pushed Q1 total revenue to T$1.134 trillion ($35.71 billion), just above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of T$1.12 trillion.

A year ago, TSMC’s Q1 revenue stood at T$839.25 billion. The company has come a long way in 12 months.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM

AI demand has been the main engine behind the growth. TSMC supplies advanced chips to Nvidia and Apple, and the ongoing buildout of AI data centres has kept orders flowing at a high pace.

The chip giant’s stock has surged more than 140% over the past year, reflecting the market’s confidence in that AI-driven demand story.

What to Expect on April 16

Full Q1 earnings land on Thursday, April 16. Wall Street is forecasting EPS of $3.27, which would be more than 50% higher than the same quarter a year ago.

Gross margin guidance sits between 63% and 65% for Q1. For the full year 2026, TSMC expects revenue to grow around 30% in U.S. dollar terms.

Capital expenditure plans are also large. TSMC has outlined spending of $52 to $56 billion in 2026, with 70% to 80% of that earmarked for advanced technology nodes.

Analyst Outlook

Analysts are broadly bullish heading into earnings. The average price target implies around 16% upside from current levels, with the most optimistic forecasts pointing to a roughly 30% gain.

The focus when earnings drop will likely shift from top-line revenue to margins and profitability. Revenue beat expectations — now investors want to see what that translates to at the bottom line.

TSMC’s last reported quarterly figures already showed exponential growth in earnings, and the Q1 numbers are expected to continue that trend.

For now, the March revenue data gives investors a clear early read on the quarter. The headline number came in ahead of estimates, and the annual comparison is hard to argue with.

The official word comes April 16.

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