Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock: Why Analysts Still Like It After a Big Run-Up

TLDR

• Jefferies raised its price target on XOM from $178 to $184, implying ~18.25% upside, maintaining a “buy” rating.
• XOM reported Q4 EPS of $1.71, beating estimates of $1.63, with revenue of $80.04 billion.
• The Iran conflict knocked out roughly 6% of Exxon’s global production, creating near-term earnings pressure.
• Wells Fargo upgraded XOM to “overweight” with a $185 target; Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $157.42.
• Exxon’s growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin gives it production exposure outside the politically volatile Middle East.

Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) bull case remains intact despite a wave of conflicting signals from Wall Street and the Middle East. The company is navigating geopolitical disruption while analysts continue to raise their targets.

Exxon Mobil Corporation, XOM

Jefferies lifted its price target from $178 to $184 on Thursday, maintaining a “buy” rating. That implies roughly 18.25% upside from recent closing prices. Wells Fargo also upgraded XOM to “overweight” with a $185 target, adding fresh momentum for buyers.

Not everyone is as upbeat. Wolfe Research trimmed its target from $158 to $153, and BMO Capital Markets kept a “market perform” rating with a $155 price target. Overall, the Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy,” based on 13 Buy, seven Hold, and one Sell rating, with an average target of $157.42.

XOM was trading at $155.61 on Thursday, down slightly on the day. The stock carries a market cap of roughly $648 billion, a P/E ratio of 23.30, and a 50-day moving average of $154.

On the earnings front, XOM beat Q4 expectations. The company posted EPS of $1.71, ahead of the $1.63 consensus. Revenue came in at $80.04 billion, topping the $77.98 billion estimate, though that was still down 1.3% year over year.

The Iran conflict is creating real headwinds for Exxon in the near term. The company disclosed that roughly 6% of its global production was disrupted. Management also flagged that Q1 upstream and downstream results would take a hit. On the upside, Exxon said higher crude and gas prices from the conflict could boost Q1 upstream profits by as much as $2.9 billion.

A temporary pause in attacks near the Strait of Hormuz lifted market sentiment briefly, sending crude prices lower and pressuring XOM early in the session. But shipping through the strait remains impaired, and insurers are still cautious.

Guyana and the Permian Provide a Buffer

Exxon’s growth story outside the Middle East is a key part of the bull case. Production from the Stabroek Block in Guyana has grown quickly and now ranks as one of the company’s top growth engines.

The Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition has also found its stride in the Permian Basin, giving Exxon a larger, lower-cost production base in West Texas. The Permian’s short-cycle nature means Exxon can respond faster to market shifts than rivals tied to more politically constrained projects.

Valuation Debate

XOM is up around 61% over the past year, which has some analysts questioning how much upside is left. At roughly 21x 2026 estimated EPS of $7.4, it trades above the historical range for oil majors.

Exxon’s 12-month high is $176.41; its 12-month low was $97.80. Insiders sold 11,460 shares worth $1.69 million in the last quarter. Institutional investors hold 61.80% of the stock.

Analysts at Erste Group lifted their FY2026–FY2027 EPS forecasts for Exxon, citing improving core earnings expectations. The average analyst EPS forecast for the full year sits at $7.43.

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