The memecoin market is gradually regaining its spark, which usually draws traders in. It has often been embraced by speculative traders looking for quick success, but it has proved just as hard as others. While cases of overnight success have occurred, they typically happen among savvy traders or institutions. Even in memecoins, a specific niche is needed to achieve profitability.
That does not mean they can’t be traded. Usually, established memecoins tend to move when markets are optimistic. The market has been in a slump for the past half-year, yet signs of a shift are emerging. The recent surges in market capitalization and trading volume offered a few clues.
The memecoin market cap briefly jumped to $1.2 trillion, but it corrected fully shortly after. But what led to these spikes?
President Trump officially announced he would host a meme coin conference later this month. This news fueled speculation among memecoin traders. The caps and volumes spiked as big holders rushed to withdraw millions of USD in TRUMP crypto from the Binance exchange. The top holder activity suggested potential accumulation with an event resembling the one held last year for major TRUMP holders.
The memecoin conference was bullish for the broader sector, as last year’s event drove most of the large caps. Dogecoin (DOGE), Pepe (PEPE), and Official Trump (TRUMP) were some of the most actively traded tokens at the time.
Consequently, the likelihood of Trump introducing a new coin before the end of the year soared to 30%, representing a 9% increase. Traders had placed bets worth $73K, with $3.2K traded in the past 24 hours. Still, TRUMP crypto is tipped to be at the center of the event rather than a new meme coin.
Odds of Trump launching coin by December 31 | Source: Polymarket
One incident in the past 24 hours supported increased speculative trading. A trader tried to manipulate the FARTCOIN market by buying 145.24 million tokens on Hyperliquid across four wallets but was liquidated. He closed with a loss of over $3 million, even though short trades won.
With Justin Sun and other new addresses withdrawing TRUMP from exchanges, this suggests the market could be about to turn. Institutional backing supported this potential, though it did not guarantee it.
Another memecoin news story was Canary Capital filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Spot PEPE ETF. This would expand PEPE’s exposure to traditional investors who are easier to onboard through an ETF. Once approved, more capital would flow into the memecoin through ETFs, thus increasing its value.
The firm did not have PEPE in their basket. Last year, on November 12th, they filed for the MOG ETF, which is still under review with the SEC. This showed how memecoins had gone mainstream alongside utility-driven cryptos.
On the charts, the memecoin market cap spiked on the news but sharply dropped to its cap of $3.44 billion after taking out shorts on the upside. The daily trading volume recorded for all memecoins was $3.31 billion at its peak. However, TRUMP crypto remained undervalued, trading at around $2.97.
Memecoin market cap and volume | Source: CoinMarketCap
The instant rejection indicated the market was not ready to continue rallying, as sell pressure remained. “Pump and dump” meme coins may have absorbed a significant portion of this liquidity. All in all, the data shows the spike was a result of heightened speculation, which did not last. But the signals hinted that times of potential reversal could be near.
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