CarMax (KMX) Q4 FY26 Earnings Preview: Turnaround Hopes Meet Reality Tuesday

Key Takeaways

• CarMax is scheduled to release Q4 FY26 financial results before market open on Tuesday, April 14.
• Analyst consensus forecasts earnings per share of $0.21, representing a 64% decline from the prior year, while revenue is projected at $5.69 billion, a 5.2% decrease.
• The options market is anticipating approximately a 10.5% price swing following the earnings announcement — almost twice the 5.72% four-quarter trailing average.
• Shares have climbed 21% in 2025, boosted by a Starboard Value settlement and the addition of two independent board members.
• The consensus analyst price target of $37.15 suggests potential downside of roughly 20% from the stock’s recent trading level.

Ahead of Tuesday’s quarterly report, CarMax has finalized an agreement with activist investor Starboard Value and welcomed two new independent directors to its board. Analysts are bracing for a challenging quarter, with revenue projected to decline 5.2% year-over-year to $5.69 billion and earnings per share expected to plummet 64% to $0.21.

CarMax, Inc., KMX

Yet despite these headwinds, KMX shares have surged 21% since the start of the year as the earnings date approaches.

Much of the investor enthusiasm stems from CEO Keith Barr’s comprehensive turnaround strategy. The initiative emphasizes expense reduction, operational streamlining, and attracting customers through more budget-friendly vehicle selections and focused marketing campaigns. The involvement of Starboard Value has accelerated this process, with numerous activist recommendations reportedly incorporated into management’s strategic blueprint.

Evercore’s Greg Melich upgraded his price objective on KMX from $40 to $45 while maintaining a Hold stance. He anticipates used-vehicle comparable sales will decline 3.0% — modestly better than the FactSet consensus estimate of a 3.5% drop. His $0.21 earnings projection accounts for improved comparable sales trends, though tempered by a more cautious view on gross profit per vehicle. Melich believes CarMax was forced to “sharpen pricing to stabilize volume trends.”

William Blair’s Sharon Zackfia similarly maintains a Hold recommendation. She projects Q4 revenue will fall 3%, driven by flat retail vehicle prices and a high-single-digit contraction in wholesale operations. Her $0.21 EPS estimate incorporates below-consensus assumptions for both retail gross profit per unit and CarMax Auto Finance profitability.

Zackfia interprets the sequential strengthening in used-unit comparable sales — improving from a 9% contraction in Q3 FY26 to a forecasted 2% decline in Q4 — as a “nice inflection point.” However, she emphasizes uncertainty around whether CarMax can fully restore its historical profitability margins. At current valuations, she considers KMX fairly priced at 19 times her calendar year 2026 earnings forecast.

Challenges Still Loom Large

Neither Wall Street analyst has adopted a bullish position. Both highlight intense industry competition, cyclical economic pressures, and execution challenges as significant obstacles. CarMax has fallen short of revenue expectations on multiple occasions during the past two years, and even reduced expectations haven’t consistently been achieved.

The options market is pricing in an approximate 10.53% movement in either direction after the earnings release. This exceeds the stock’s average post-earnings swing of 5.72% over the previous four quarters, indicating elevated uncertainty among market participants.

Critical Metrics and Management Guidance

Investors will focus intently on management’s perspective regarding turnaround progress and demand trajectory. Broader economic challenges and tariff-related uncertainty have steered some buyers toward pre-owned vehicles rather than new cars, potentially offering modest support.

With the consensus analyst target sitting at $37.15 compared to the current trading price near $46.79, Wall Street appears to believe the stock has appreciated beyond what current business fundamentals justify, implying approximately 20% potential downside.

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