Too Far, Too Fast? Nebius (NBIS) Gets Downgraded After Monster Run

TLDR

• Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Nebius (NBIS) from Buy to Hold after the stock rose ~70% in roughly two months.
• Analyst Paul Meeks raised the price target to $154 from $108, but flagged valuation as stretched near-term.
• NBIS has surged 574% over the past year and is trading near its 52-week high of $149.82.
• Meeks lifted revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027, both now above consensus.
• The firm sees better near-term risk-reward in CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) at current levels.

Nebius Group (NBIS) has had a monster run. But after a near-vertical climb of around 70% since early February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks has hit the brakes — at least on his rating.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

On Thursday, Meeks cut his rating on NBIS from Buy to Hold. He also raised his price target to $154 from $108. The upgrade in target and the downgrade in rating might seem contradictory, but the logic is straightforward: the stock moved faster than expected.

NBIS opened February at around $85.19. By April 10, it had closed at $144.97. That’s roughly a $60 gain in just over two months. The stock is now trading near its 52-week high of $149.82.

Zoom out further and the picture is even more striking. Over the past 12 months, NBIS has gained 574%.

Meeks isn’t sounding alarm bells on the business. In fact, he’s more optimistic than before. The firm raised its revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. Both estimates now sit above Wall Street consensus.

The numbers are eye-catching. From 2026 to 2027, Freedom Capital expects revenue to grow more than 200% and adjusted EBITDA to rise around 336%.

What’s Driving the Growth Outlook

A key catalyst for that 2027 acceleration is a capacity expansion announced on March 31. Nebius said it would add 310 MW of AI infrastructure in Lappeenranta, Finland. That capacity is expected to come online next year.

Once fully deployed, the facility is expected to be one of Europe’s largest AI factories. That’s a meaningful piece of the growth story heading into 2027.

The new $154 price target is based on 6 times Freedom Capital’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA estimate, compared to 25 times its 2026 number — reflecting the steep ramp the firm expects between the two years.

Elsewhere, BofA Securities started coverage with a Buy and a $150 price target. BWS Financial has a $200 target, following a $12 billion contract Nebius secured with Meta Platforms — with a potential additional $15 billion on the table.

Analyst Landscape

On TipRanks, NBIS holds a Strong Buy consensus, with nine Buy ratings and one Hold. The average price target sits at $165.20, implying around 14% upside from current levels.

In March, Nebius also priced a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering — upsized from $3.75 billion. The deal included $2.25 billion in notes due 2031 and $1.75 billion due 2033, settling on March 20.

Meeks said he now sees better near-term setups in CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) compared to NBIS at today’s price.

The downgrade is a valuation call, not a growth call. Freedom Capital still sees NBIS as a strong AI infrastructure story — just one where the stock may need time to grow into its price.

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