Buy the Dip? Oppenheimer Upgrades Blackstone (BX) After Major Price Drop

TLDR

• Oppenheimer upgraded Blackstone (BX) from “Market Perform” to “Outperform” with a $154 price target, implying ~34% upside from its close near $114.86.
• Analyst Chris Kotowski cited BX’s strong track record since 2009, highlighting its real estate business as “without peer.”
• Blackstone beat Q4 estimates, posting $1.75 EPS vs. $1.54 expected, with revenue of $4.36B — up 41.4% year-over-year.
• Major shareholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone bought ~2.87M shares for $75M in March, lifting its stake by 18.2%.
• The stock trades at roughly $114.86, well off its 12-month high of $190.09, with a consensus average target of $155.27.

Blackstone (BX) stock edged up 1.5% in early Monday trading after Oppenheimer upgraded the alternative asset manager to “Outperform,” calling the recent selloff an overreaction.

Blackstone Inc., BX

Analyst Chris Kotowski issued the upgrade, noting BX has taken a “drubbing” despite what he described as “outstanding performance.” He set a price target of $154 — about 34% above where the stock opened Monday at $114.86.

Kotowski has covered Blackstone since 2009 and pointed to the firm’s real estate arm as its standout strength. He described it as “without peer,” naming Brookfield as a distant second.

Real estate and private credit have both fallen out of favor with investors lately. But Oppenheimer’s view is that the market fears around those sectors are overblown.

He also flagged BX’s “capital light” model as a key positive. Because the firm doesn’t hold a controlling stake in an insurance affiliate or carry large balance sheet investments, nearly all its earnings flow back to shareholders.

Strong Earnings Backdrop

Blackstone’s most recent quarterly results gave the upgrade some added weight. The company reported Q4 EPS of $1.75, beating the consensus estimate of $1.54 by $0.21.

Revenue came in at $4.36B for the quarter, well above the expected $3.69B and up 41.4% from the same period a year earlier. The company also posted a net margin of 20.89% and a return on equity of 22.17%.

Analysts now expect full-year EPS of $5.87 for the current year.

Insider and Analyst Activity

On the insider front, major shareholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone picked up roughly 2.87 million shares on March 20th at an average price of $26.15 per share, totaling about $75 million. That lifted their position by 18.2%, bringing their total holding to over 18.6 million shares.

Separately, BX Buzz ML-1 GP LLC sold 7.48 million shares on March 17th — a 99.66% reduction in their stake — at an average price of $3.51 per share.

Institutional investors still hold around 70% of the stock overall.

Wall Street’s broader take on BX is mixed. TD Cowen cut its target from $164 to $141 but kept a “buy” rating. Evercore trimmed its target from $175 to $170, maintaining “outperform.” Barclays set its target at $124 with an “equal weight” rating. JPMorgan reduced its target to $122 and rates the stock “neutral.”

Eleven analysts currently rate BX a buy, while eleven others have it at hold. The average price target across the group sits at $155.27 — a “Moderate Buy” consensus.

The stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $101.73, having pulled back sharply from its 12-month high of $190.09. Its 50-day moving average is $117.75, and its 200-day moving average is $141.01.

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