Trump doesn't understand his own voters — and his recent actions prove it: analysis

President Donald Trump’s prosecution of the Iran war reveals that he does not understand his own voters, revealed an expert on Arab American affairs.

Dr. James J. Zogby, president of a non-profit advocacy group called the Arab American Institute, reached this conclusion in a Monday post analyzing multiple polls. Zogby’s brother is famous pollster John Zogby, and Zogby’s Arab American Institute advocates for Arab American rights. (Iran, though majority Muslim like millions of Arabs, is predominantly ethnically Persian.)

“With the apparent collapse of the US talks with Iran, President Donald Trump finds himself in a box with no easy way out,” Zogby wrote. “Polls are showing that key elements of his winning electoral coalition are growing weary of the war and frustrated with its domestic consequences. As we approach the midterm elections, Republicans in Congress are also nervous about how voters may react when they go to the polls.”

Zogby proceeded to break down the “Republican-related groups” clashing with each other over the war. There are religious conservatives, anti-war voters and “the diverse collection of voters who have hitched their hopes to President Trump’s success” over economic and other practical issues. Because of his unpopular policies involving surprise wars against Venezuela and Iran, cuts to popular social programs like Medicare and food benefits and his overall failure to lower prices, “the President is in a box with no good way out. He is being pressured by his base and Republicans running for office in competitive districts to find a way to end this war before more voters turn against them, while at the same time he is being urged by his regional allies not to walk away and leaving a mess in his wake. The choice he makes will be fateful.”

As Trump’s standing continues to flag among his base voters, some conservatives believe the inflicting of “real pain” due to undeniable Trump policies like his tariffs, wars and spending cuts will turn many in the MAGA movement against him.

“The best case scenario economically is where we're at now, which is real pain for people to experience,” conservative commentator Tim Miller of The Bulwark told his colleagues Jonathan V. Last and Sam Stein in March. “I don't think that 90% of the MAGA folks are going to stay with them. I really don't. It's hard to tell in the polls right now because there's a lag.”

Later Miller added, “Yes, self-described MAGA folks, 90% of them are supportive of Iran, but that's just people who are self-described MAGA folks. I mean, how many people in those polls don't self-define as MAGA folks anymore because of what's happening? As we are sitting here, literally as we are sitting here, the Marquette University law poll, which is like the gold standard in Wisconsin, they put out a poll today. Trump's net approval rating is minus 14%. which is, ‘the lowest net approval figure for him in both of his terms as president.’ I mean, these numbers are, who knows? They're catastrophic.”

When asked about growing criticisms of Trump’s war against Iran and its impact on the economy (such as Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing gas prices to go up), two White House spokespeople told AlterNet the American people will ultimately support the president’s policies.

“President Trump has been clear about short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, and the Administration went into this military engagement with a plan to mitigate these disruptions to America’s long-term economic resurgence," Kush Desai told AlterNet last week. "As energy markets begin to stabilize, historic tax refund checks hit the mail, and the rest of the Trump administration’s pro-growth agenda continues taking effect, Americans can rest assured that the best is yet to come.”

Similarly Taylor Rogers said that “the United States’ energy dominance status, as the world’s leading producer and a top exporter of oil and natural gas, has positioned us to not rely on the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz like other countries. If anything, Operation Epic Fury actually underscored the importance of producing reliable, affordable, and secure energy here at home. Many of our allies that have tried transitioning to intermittent and unreliable renewable energy sources have predictably failed to break their reliance on foreign oil that goes through the Strait."

She added, "Several countries from around the world are now looking to emulate the President’s energy dominance agenda and are advancing new partnerships that enhance their energy security with the United States.”

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