Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to stay patient on rate cuts as the war in Iran adds fresh inflation risk, a macro setup that clouds Bitcoin’s near-term outlook without proving any direct move in the token itself.
Fed Patience Is the Core Signal
In an interview with Semafor, Bessent said the Fed should “wait and see” before deciding on rate cuts and added that it was “doing the right thing by sitting and watching” how the Iran conflict plays out. For crypto desks, the important takeaway is not that Bessent sets policy, but that delayed easing would keep liquidity conditions tighter for risk assets.
The Fed’s own June 2025 Monetary Policy Report said the FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 4.25%-4.50% and was well positioned to wait for more clarity on inflation and economic activity. That alignment matters because it shows Bessent’s call for patience broadly matches the central bank’s last formal hold language.
Semafor also reported that U.S. inflation rose three times faster in March than in February as oil and gas costs surged. That data point strengthens the case for caution, but it still does not prove that war effects alone explain every inflation move.
Bitcoin Looks Caught Between Relief and Caution
Bitcoin was trading near $74,398, with a 24-hour gain of 5.13%, which makes the price backdrop constructive but not conclusive. The cleaner macro read is that any pushback in rate-cut timing can still limit how aggressively traders add risk, even when spot is rebounding.
Sentiment still looks fragile beneath that bounce. The Fear and Greed Index at 21, classified as Extreme Fear in the research brief, fits the same defensive tone seen in CoinLive’s coverage of XRP open interest crashing 71%, where derivatives exposure was already shrinking.
BTC Markets added similar context in an early-April desk wrap, saying Bitcoin closed the quarter down roughly a quarter even after a March rebound. That lines up with CoinLive’s earlier report on Bitcoin’s move toward $75,000 on de-escalation hopes, which showed how fast geopolitical headlines can flip the same asset between relief and defense.
What Crypto Traders Should Watch Next
The next checkpoint is whether inflation data confirms the energy-led acceleration cited by Semafor and whether Fed officials keep repeating the need for more clarity. If both signals hold, Bitcoin may stay headline-sensitive rather than settling into a clean liquidity-driven rally.
Washington policy is another live variable. CoinLive is also tracking Sen. Thom Tillis’s stablecoin yield draft, which matters because crypto risk appetite is now moving on both macro policy and sector-specific regulation at the same time.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
