Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE (HYPE) re-tested $45 on Tuesday, marking its highest value since October 31, 2025. The rally extends a 108% rally from its yearly low at $21 on Jan. 21.
With HYPE price pushing toward all-time highs, market demand signals remain mixed, as weak spot buying activity threatens to slow the rally's momentum.
HYPE/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
HYPE price trend and onchain data diverge
HYPE currently trades 26% below its all-time high of $59, with relatively thin resistance between the current levels and its peak. The next liquidity zone lies between $52 and $48 and could be reached if momentum sustains. However, the HYPE spot and futures trading data suggest the rally is not entirely conviction-driven.
The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has gradually declined to -$41.48 million, even as prices have risen. This divergence suggests the rally is being supported more by passive demand without aggressive spot buying.
Meanwhile, the futures CVD has stayed mostly flat near -$748 million over the past month, after recovering from lows near -$900 million.
HYPE price, aggregated spot volume, futures volume, and funding rate. Source: velo.chart
The open interest (OI) has risen steadily to $1.38 billion, near local highs and signaling an increased market participation.
However, rising OI alongside weak futures CVD suggests traders may be in positions without strong conviction in the bullish price trend.
As a result, the market may become more vulnerable to sharp, liquidation-driven moves once the bullish trend fades.
Related: Tether launches self-custodial wallet with cloud backup option
BitMEX founder say HYPE may gain 200% by August
In March, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said HYPE could reach $150 if Hyperliquid expands its dominance in the futures market and its product suite.
Hayes’ thesis centers on the continued market-share gains from centralized exchanges and the rising protocol revenue.
Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue run rate stood at $843 million in March, and it would need to reach $1.4 billion by August. That implies a 66% increase within five months.
Hyperliquid allocates up to 97% of its revenue to buying HYPE from the open market, creating a direct link between trading activity and token demand.
HIP-3, a protocol upgrade enabling trading of non-crypto assets like commodities, contributes close to 10% of revenue and could drive further expansion, especially as assets like gold and oil gain traction on the platform.
The real-world asset (RWA) trading activity on Hyperliquid has also accelerated sharply, with open interest rising to $2.3 billion on April 6. This marks an increase of over 190% from March levels and nearly 800% from early-year lows.
This growth pace for the protocol and its market-share gains could play a key role in any extended price move for the altcoin.
Related: XRP consolidation may transform into explosive rally if $1.40 is topped: Data
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