ASML Stock Rises After Earnings Beat and Raised 2026 Guidance

TLDR

• ASML reported Q1 net profit of €2.76 billion on revenue of €8.77 billion, beating analyst estimates
• 2026 revenue guidance raised to €36–€40 billion, up from €34–€39 billion
• CEO says chip demand is outpacing supply, with customers accelerating expansion plans
• ASML plans to ship 60 low-NA EUV tools in 2026, 25% more than in 2025
• China exposure remains a risk, with a US congressional bill threatening to restrict equipment sales

ASML reported a strong first quarter and lifted its full-year outlook, pointing to rising demand for chipmaking equipment driven by AI infrastructure buildout.

Q1 net profit came in at €2.76 billion on revenue of €8.77 billion. Analysts had expected €2.55 billion in profit on €8.63 billion in revenue, per FactSet.

The Dutch company now expects 2026 sales between €36 billion and €40 billion. That’s up from its previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion, a roughly 4% increase at the midpoint.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

ASML holds a near-monopoly on EUV lithography tools — the machines used to print the most advanced chips. These tools can cost up to $400 million each.

Shipping More Tools in 2026

CFO Roger Dassen said ASML expects to ship 60 of its bestselling low-NA EUV tools this year. That’s 25% more than it shipped in 2025. He added the company will have capacity to ship 80 in 2027.

TSMC recently announced major investments in production capacity, which has lifted sentiment around ASML. Samsung and SK Hynix are also spending heavily on memory chip manufacturing.

ASML’s stock has risen roughly 40% so far this year. Its American depositary receipts were up 0.7% in after-hours trading Tuesday.

The company said it will no longer disclose quarterly order numbers, a change that removes a data point investors previously used to track momentum.

China Exposure Still a Watchpoint

One concern is how much business ASML does in China. A bipartisan group of US representatives recently introduced the MATCH Act, a bill that would further restrict semiconductor equipment sales to China.

ASML said it expects China to account for 20% of 2026 sales. However, the company made a similar forecast for 2025 and ended up deriving around a third of its revenue from China that year.

Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon noted the upside in the new guidance appears to come partly from immersion lithography, where ASML had previously expected a decline due to falling China sales. He said this “could partially reflect MATCH Act-related accelerated buying” by Chinese customers trying to stock up before any new restrictions take effect.

ASML’s stock was seen slipping marginally in pre-market trading Wednesday despite the earnings beat.

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