Analysis: It’s Crazy to Think XRP Has Been Repeating This Structure for Over a Decade

Crypto analyst ChartNerd has presented a detailed technical perspective on XRP, arguing that the digital asset may still be following a long-standing structural pattern that dates back more than a decade.

In an X post accompanied by a video analysis, he stated that XRP has been repeating a consistent formation over time and questioned whether the market is at a decisive turning point or still progressing through a broader corrective phase.

In the video, ChartNerd explained that his analysis focuses on a simple but persistent framework built on key levels of support and resistance, alongside recurring cycles of strong upward movements and sharp corrections.

He emphasized that XRP’s price history, stretching back to 2013, reveals the development of two major ascending support trend lines that have guided long-term price behavior.

According to him, XRP initially formed a multi-year base during its early years, characterized by higher lows and intermittent rallies followed by steep declines.

He highlighted that during this early period, XRP recorded a 17-fold increase before an 85% correction, followed by another rally of approximately six times its value and a subsequent decline of around 80%. These repeated retests of support eventually led to a third contact point, which preceded the significant expansion phase in 2017.

Extended Base Formation and Current Market Structure

ChartNerd argued that the current cycle mirrors this earlier structure but on a larger scale. While the initial base formation lasted just under four years, he suggested that the present cycle, which began after the 2018 peak, has extended to nearly eight years.

He noted that XRP has continued to respect ascending support since its retest during the 2020 market downturn, with price movements showing similar patterns of rallies and corrections within defined channels.

He pointed out that XRP recently achieved a new all-time high in July 2025 after a 6–7x rally from a secondary retest. However, the asset has since entered a corrective phase, forming a falling wedge pattern that resembles previous bearish structures.

ChartNerd stated that if this pattern continues into 2026, XRP could undergo a third retest of its long-term support, similar to the setup observed before the 2017 breakout.

Bearish Conditions Persist Despite Long-Term Upside Potential

The analyst maintained that XRP remains in a bearish trend in the short term, citing a prolonged period of downside movement and a significant correction of approximately 69%. He warned that relief rallies within such conditions are common but may only lead to lower highs before further declines.

He identified key resistance levels between $2.14 and $2.40, noting that a sustained move above this range would be necessary to confirm that a market bottom has formed. Until then, he believes the bearish structure remains intact. At the same time, he acknowledged the possibility that XRP could hold above its recent lows and gradually build a base without revisiting deeper price levels.

ChartNerd concluded that while uncertainty remains, the historical structure suggests that a third retest could present a significant opportunity if it materializes. He added that long-term projections based on Fibonacci extensions place potential targets at $8, $13, and $27, provided the broader pattern continues to play out as it has in previous cycles.

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