Tensions in the Middle East are feared to deepen as ongoing military and political confrontations fuel a widening regional crisis with global repercussions.

The crisis has escalated, following launched strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28, which resulted in the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The impact of the confrontation has already spilled to the rest of the world, messing up the global economy and national security of other countries. It has also disrupted a rules-based international order, as escalations undermine established diplomatic frameworks.

The US and Iran concluded a 21-hour round of negotiations without reaching a deal. Despite renewed threats from President Donald Trump, markets reacted positively, seeing an openness to further talks and a potential path to ending the conflict.

This piece traces alliances and emerging blocs and how they reshape the regional balance of power and respond to evolving geopolitical pressures.

JOINT PRESS CONFERENCE. Members of the media raise their hands as US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at a joint press conference in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, DC, U., September 29, 2025.

The US-Israel coalition

Israel and the United States remain the central security partnership driving the current regional situation. Their relationship is anchored on long-standing military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic backing.

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, the US has provided sustained political and military support to Israel. 

On February 28, the two countries launched strikes against Iran under “Operation Epic Fury.” But this didn’t happen out of the blue. The tensions stem from a decades-long conflict between Iran and Israel. In recent years, the dispute sharpened over Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which the US and Israel view as a growing security threat.

US President Donald Trump has justified the attacks, saying they are a deterrent to a possible wider threat from Iran. The head of the US National Counterterrorism Center, Joseph Kent, however, wrote in his resignation letter that Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation,” contradicting the administration’s rationale.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to produce a breakthrough. The US and Iran on April 12 walked away with no deal, following 21-hour-long negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan. 

Washington announced immediate steps to enforce a maritime blockade on Iranian ports and vessels linked to Iranian shipping activity. Trump even said that “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”

The traditional allies of the US have so far responded to the crisis with caution. A number of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, for example, will not participate in the US’ plan to block the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has threatened to withdraw from NATO in response.

CEASEFIRE. People gather after a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war was announced, in Tehran, Iran, April 8, 2026.

The ‘Axis of Resistance’

Iran sits at the center of a network of aligned state and non-state actors that have become more active since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023. This network is often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance” and includes Hezbollah from Lebanon, Iraqi Shiite militias, Hamas from Palestine, and the Houthis from Yemen. 

Hezbollah was formed in the early 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War with Iranian support, following Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. In fact, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) helped train and arm the group.

Iran expanded its influence after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq by supporting Shiite armed groups such as the Badr Organization and later Kataeb Hezbollah. Many of these groups were later integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces. 

Meanwhile, Iran developed ties with Hamas primarily through political and military support for its armed wing. Since the 2023 Gaza war, Hamas has again coordinated indirectly with other Iran-aligned groups in the broader regional conflict.

Iran also expanded support to the Houthis after they took control of Sanaa during Yemen’s civil war. The group has received Iranian military assistance, including drones and missile technology, while developing its own insurgent capacity. 

INITIAL TALKS. Foreign ministers Badr Abdelatty of Egypt, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud of Saudi Arabia, Ishaq Dar of Pakistan, and Hakan Fidan of Turkey meet to discuss regional de-escalation, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 29, 2026.

Gulf countries: Attacked, but aiming for the end of war?

Iran and its allies have targeted major infrastructure in several Gulf countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — following US-Israel attacks. These have resulted in civilian injuries and deaths, according to monitoring by Human Rights Watch. 

The attacks on Gulf countries, many of them hosting US military bases, came as a surprise, according to Trump, but a Reuters report quoted a senior US official as saying that the President has been warned that attacking Iran would lead to this situation. 

Diplomatic sources, according to another report, suggested that Gulf nations pushed the US for stronger action against Iranian threats to oil facilities. In exchange, Washington requested their direct participation in the conflict as the Trump administration sought localized military backing.

Iran has sent mixed signals in relation to what’s happening. 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian “personally apologized” on March 7, saying they did not intend to violate the territories of their neighbors, adding that “they are our brothers, we stand with these ones we love in the region.” 

The IRCG, however, insisted that it has “committed no aggression against them,” even threatening that “all military bases and interests” of US and Israel in the region “will be considered primary targets” if hostilities continue. 

In recent weeks, however, several Gulf countries played the role of regional mediators focused on containment and diplomatic stabilization amid widening conflict risks, even if Iran has demanded compensation from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan for allegedly participating in the war. 

Saudi Arabia recently urged the US to end the war and go back to the negotiating table to prevent a further blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Qatar, which has the biggest US military base in the region, said it supports diplomatic efforts to halt the crisis and push for a regional response.

A Washington Post report, however, indicated that the UAE is preparing to help the US to “open the Strait of Hormuz by force” as Iran continues its attacks. 

TALKS. A screen displays US Vice President JD Vance, who is leading a US delegation participating in peace talks with Iran, addressing a press briefing in Islamabad, Pakistan on April 12, 2026. Akhtar Soomro/Reuters

Pakistan as mediator

Pakistan has positioned itself as a diplomatic intermediary amid the expanding US-Iran-Israel conflict.

Since October 2023, Islamabad has repeatedly supported ceasefire calls. In September 2025, before the UN General Assembly, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the “genocidal onslaught” in Israel, and said that his country stands “for peace, justice and development through multilateral cooperation.“

A defining moment in 2026 has been Pakistan taking on the role of mediator, including hosting high-level US-Iran talks in Islamabad in April. Although the initial session concluded without a formal agreement, Al Jazeera reported that the country is actively lobbying for a second round of negotiations to salvage the fragile ceasefire.

Pakistan is no stranger to hosting high-stakes talks. In 2016, it brokered negotiations between Afghanistan and the Taliban aimed at ending years of insurgent violence. – Rappler.com