Iran has shipped 11 million barrels of oil since the US imposed its Hormuz blockade. The likelihood of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 now sits at 57.5% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The 11 million barrel figure suggests enforcement is looser than advertised. The April 30 sub-market dropped 4 points as traders priced in apparent gaps in the blockade. The May 31 market is stable at 84.5% YES.
Why it matters
Iran’s ability to export oil despite US measures complicates the supply picture. The WTI Crude Oil market predicting $160 oil by April has no active trading data yet, which suggests traders are waiting for clearer escalation or enforcement action before committing.
What to watch
Trade data shows $10,250 in USDC traded daily in the April 30 Hormuz market, with just $354 needed to move the price 5 points. That thin order book means a single large order could swing odds significantly.
Traders betting on normalization by April 30 need to weigh these enforcement gaps. At 50.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, a 1.98x return. That bet requires confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough within 14 days. Watch for CENTCOM statements, Iranian naval actions, and any announcements from Trump or NATO allies.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-ships-11m-barrels-of-oil-despite-us-hormuz-blockade/
