XRP ETFs Post a 3-Month Record as a 14% Break Sets Up

XRP (XRP) price trades at $1.43 after gaining 8.60% from its April low. The token is forming a second cup-and-handle pattern on the 12-hour chart. US spot XRP ETFs just posted their biggest weekly inflow in three months.

The last time XRP formed this pattern, the handle broke and price rallied 14.35% into March 17. The current setup mirrors that attempt in shape, duration, and volume rhythm.

XRP ETFs Post Their Biggest Week Since January as a Second Cup and Handle Forms

XRP price last carved a cup-and-handle pattern between early March and mid-March. The handle broke on March 15. Price then rallied 14.35% into the March 17 peak.

A similar structure is forming again. A second cup-and-handle pattern has developed between late March and mid-April. The shape, duration, and rim alignment closely match the first setup.

Meanwhile, volume has expanded on the rally candles into the current resistance. It has dried up on the pullback that is forming the handle, which is typical of this bullish pattern.

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US spot XRP ETFs have added fresh conviction. SoSoValue data shows $41.64 million in net inflows for the week ending April 16 (still developing week). That is the largest single-week inflow in three months.

April 16’s inflow follows $11.75 million the week prior. That represents a 254% jump week-over-week, the kind of acceleration that typically accompanies pattern breakouts rather than consolidation.

The most interesting part is that the March breakout happened without ETF support. In the weeks leading into the handle break, flows were deep red. The March 6 week closed at -$4.09 million. The March 13 week deepened to -$28.07 million. Yet XRP still broke the handle on March 15 and rallied 14.35%. The ETF flows only turned green after the rally, with $636,000 on March 20 and $2.66 million on March 27.

The current setup flips that order. April 2 was red at -$3.56 million, but the handle has not broken yet. Instead, the next two weeks flipped to $11.75 million and $41.64 million while the pattern is still forming. ETF conviction is arriving before the breakout, not after.

Short-Term Holder NUPL Climbs but Remains in Loss

The XRP short-term holder NUPL (net unrealized profit-loss) has climbed sharply from its February capitulation low. This on-chain metric tracks whether recent buyers are sitting in unrealized profit or loss.

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss turns negative when the average short-term holder is underwater. It turns higher when recent buyer losses minimize. XRP’s short-term NUPL collapsed to -0.79 in early February. That reading marked full capitulation.

Meanwhile, since then, the metric has climbed steadily. The latest reading sits near -0.21. On January 28, the same -0.21 level coincided with XRP trading at $1.91. After that, the metric dipped again, dragging price down with it.

Despite the recovery, the metric is still below zero. Recent buyers remain in aggregate loss. That creates a potential overhead supply risk near the break level. Holders may sell into strength to exit their underwater positions if they get a chance. However, it seems that at present the ETF flows are keeping the conviction higher, warding off the possible sell pressure for now.

With the ETF surge confirmed, the pattern intact, and one on-chain warning visible, the price chart becomes the final decider.

XRP Price Levels That Decide If the Parallel Holds

XRP price at $1.43 sits just below the $1.46 resistance that capped the recent rally. A clean 12-hour close above $1.46 would confirm the pattern break.

Meanwhile, the measured move from the pattern targets $1.68. That implies roughly 14.80% from neckline, per the cup’s projection.

Yet a rejection at $1.46 weakens the bullish case. In that case, $1.40, the 0.382 Fibonacci, becomes the first support. A loss of that level exposes $1.35 and would compromise the bullish pattern. Reaching here would hint at a double-top forming instead, with $1.46 as the ceiling.

Below that, $1.27 acts as the pattern’s floor, under which the bullish pattern completely invalidates.

Right now, XRP price at $1.46 separates a handle break that targets $1.68 from a fade that retests $1.27.

The post XRP ETFs Post a 3-Month Record as a 14% Break Sets Up appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/xrp-price-etf-inflows-cup-handle-analysis/