BTC Breaks $78K as Iran Opens Hormuz and Goldman Files a Bitcoin ETF

This is one of those days where everything lines up at once. Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open. Trump said the deal is “mostly complete” and the remaining issues should be wrapped up this weekend. Oil crashed 10%. The S&P 500 broke to all-time highs. And Bitcoin ripped to $78,343—its highest level since early February.

I’ve been long since $72,500 and added at $74K. This is the payoff.

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Why Did Bitcoin Break $78K Today?

Three catalysts stacked on top of each other in the same session. First, the Hormuz reopening removed the single biggest macro risk that had been capping crypto since late February. Brent crude dropped to $89 and WTI fell to $84.

When oil crashes like that, capital rotates aggressively into risk assets. Second, $171 million in short positions got liquidated in a single hour as BTC pushed through $76K–$78K resistance. Perpetual funding had flipped negative before the move, meaning traders were paying to stay short. Classic squeeze setup and it played out textbook.

Third, derivatives volume on Binance alone exceeded $2.1 billion in aggressive buying within an hour of the announcement. Traders on Kraken in the US and Upbit in South Korea piled in immediately.

Did Goldman Sachs File for a Bitcoin ETF?

Yes, and that’s a huge deal. Goldman filed this week for its first direct Bitcoin investment product. That comes right after Morgan Stanley launched its MSBT Bitcoin Trust at a 0.14% fee—the cheapest in the US market. BlackRock’s IBIT has pulled in $1.5 billion year-to-date.

When three of the biggest names in finance are all competing to offer BTC exposure, the institutional bid isn’t speculative anymore. It’s structural.

Charles Schwab also announced plans for spot crypto trading in 2026 and suggested clients might allocate up to 8.8% of portfolios to Bitcoin. WazirX and CoinDCX in India are seeing the downstream effect—domestic volume is spiking as global institutional confidence spills over.

How Much Bitcoin Did Strategy Buy This Week?

$2.6 billion in the past two weeks. Strategy’s stock surged 16% on Friday, its biggest single-day jump since February. They’re not alone—Coinbase climbed 8% and Galaxy Digital gained over 10% in the same session. The crypto treasury trade is back and it’s back with leverage.

When corporate treasuries are buying billions in BTC while the price is 40% below its October all-time high of $126,198, they’re telling you they think this dip is temporary.

Will BTC Reach $80K This Weekend?

The path is open but there’s resistance. Glassnode flagged $78,000 as the “true average market price”—the level BTC needs to hold to confirm the bullish trend. It tagged $78,343 today and is sitting at $77,319 as I write this.

The next wall is $80,525 which was the November sell-off stall point, and beyond that the 200-day moving average at roughly $87,500. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees an $85K–$88K test as his base case. I think $80K is doable this weekend if the Iran deal headlines stay positive and oil keeps falling.

Luno’s ZAR and NGN order books in South Africa and Nigeria are showing heavy weekend bid interest which is unusual and bullish.

My Trade Setup

Still long from $72,500 and $74K adds. Trailing stop now moved up to $75,200. Target 1 was $76K—hit and passed. Target 2 is $80,500. New Target 3 at $85,000 if the Iran deal closes this weekend. I’m not taking profit here. The macro just flipped, institutions are buying billions, and shorts are getting destroyed. You don’t sell into that.

Market cap is $2.70 trillion. Volume hit $146 billion in 24 hours. Fear index is at 26—still in fear while price makes two-month highs. That’s the kind of divergence that precedes the next leg up.

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