Iranian gunboats and IRGC radio warnings have deterred commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 to 0.4% YES, up from 0% yesterday.
The market for fewer than 10 ships by April 19 saw a modest 2-point spike early this morning but hasn’t moved much beyond that. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 has dropped from 51% to 22.5% YES over the past 24 hours, a far sharper reaction.
The April 19 market trades at just $14 USDC per day, meaning $12 is enough to move the price 5 points. The April 30 market, though down sharply, has $16,360 in daily USDC volume, which points to real conviction among traders that the IRGC’s actions will suppress transit counts through the end of the month.
Iran’s shipping deterrence is a direct escalation ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry. Buying YES at 22¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.5x return. That bet requires believing in a diplomatic resolution or a change in military posture within 12 days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or Iran’s Foreign Ministry before the April 22 ceasefire expiry. Either could move both markets quickly.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/iranian-gunboats-deter-shipping-in-strait-of-hormuz-ahead-of-ceasefire-expiry/
