$8.8 billion at risk! Can crypto avoid Monday shakeout if U.S. stocks crack?

Analysts expect Monday to be an “eventful” trading session. 

The question, though, is whether this is the most diplomatic way of describing what might actually unfold.

Looking at the ongoing developments surrounding the Iran-U.S. conflict, the word “eventful” seems like an understated way of describing what the U.S. stock market could face on Monday, the 20th April. 

For context, the past 72 hours have been highly volatile.

From the ceasefire boost to the U.S. President Donald Trump’s post about the Strait of Hormuz reopening, followed by the Iranian government’s immediate dismissal of his claims, the crypto market has mirrored this exact sequence.

Bitcoin [BTC] briefly broke above $78k, only to pull back toward $75k. This raises an important question: Where is crypto headed next?

At the macro level, price action suggests growing downside asymmetry. 

As the chart above shows, market probabilities now place a 44% chance of U.S. oil prices reclaiming the $100 per barrel level this month as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again.

Notably, the last trading session saw oil prices close 5.9% lower following President Trump’s announcement.

The result?

A sharp risk-on rotation, with U.S. equities rallying strongly. The S&P500, for instance, reached a record high, advancing 1.2%. The crypto market followed suit with a 1.96% jump in the same window.

In short, capital rotated into risk assets as oil prices eased and immediate supply fears temporarily subsided. 

That brings the “eventful” narrative back into focus. With markets expecting a shock for U.S. equities after a weekend marked by major developments, the question is: Is volatility set to spill over into crypto too?

Crypto enters Monday driven by liquidity and conviction

In under 48 hours, the crypto market has erased all gains made after breaking above the $2.5 trillion level.

From a technical perspective, the market is reacting to rising macro uncertainty, with nearly $70 billion flowing out of crypto during the same period. With no confirmation of peace talks, the downside move may still be developing, especially as U.S. equities remain vulnerable to a potential Monday shakeout.

If this trend continues, nearly $8.8 billion in Bitcoin long positions could face liquidation risk if BTC pulls back to $67k. Both macro conditions and on-chain spot volume suggest this level remains a realistic downside target.

In this context, Michael Saylor’s latest post naturally begins to carry added significance.

From a flow perspective, U.S. investor behavior appears aligned with Saylor’s positioning. 

Bitcoin ETF inflows remain positive, while the Coinbase Premium Index continues trending higher, signaling sustained U.S. spot demand.

The causal implication is twofold: Either markets have not fully priced in the risk of a Monday equity shakeout, or investor conviction remains strong enough to absorb macro-driven volatility, supported by Saylor’s recent X post. 

Either way, conviction matters. With no signs of the Strait reopening soon, higher oil prices could trigger a shakeout in U.S. equities. However, current crypto market flows suggest limited spillover risk. If this trend holds, capital could instead rotate from equities into crypto assets, making this a key trend to watch. 

Final Summary

• Geopolitical uncertainty and oil volatility could trigger a Monday equity shakeout, increasing downside pressure across risk assets.
• Strong ETF inflows and U.S. spot demand suggest capital may rotate into crypto rather than fully follow equities in a risk-off move.