Amazon (AMZN) Stock: Anthropic’s $30B Revenue Run Rate Is Quietly Boosting AWS

TLDR

• KeyBanc raised its Amazon price target to $325 from $285, implying a potential 30% rally from current levels.
• Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue surged from $9B in December 2025 to $30B in April 2026, which is expected to boost AWS revenue.
• KeyBanc estimates AWS accounts for roughly 60% of Anthropic’s total spending.
• Amazon CEO Andy Jassy hinted at selling Trainium chips to third parties, with chip revenue already exceeding $20B through AWS.
• Amazon stock slipped 1.4% to $247.18 Monday, sitting about 1.4% below its record closing high from November 2025.

Wall Street is warming up to Amazon ahead of its April 29 earnings report, driven largely by the explosive growth of AI model maker Anthropic and continued strength in AWS.

Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN

KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson raised his price target on Amazon to $325 from $285 on Sunday. That’s roughly a 30% premium to where the stock was trading Monday morning.

Patterson also lifted his 2026 sales estimate by 1% and his 2027 estimate by 2%.

Amazon stock slipped 1.4% on Monday to $247.18, pulled down by broader market nerves around U.S.-Iran tensions. The stock closed Friday at $250.56 — just 1.4% below its all-time closing high from November 2025.

The setup heading into earnings is quietly compelling.

Anthropic has become a major force in the AWS story. Its annual recurring revenue jumped from $9 billion in December 2025 to $30 billion in early April 2026 — a pace that’s hard to ignore.

KeyBanc estimates that AWS captures around 60% of Anthropic’s total spending. That’s a meaningful chunk of revenue tied to one of the fastest-growing AI companies in the world.

Anthropic has also been busy on the product front. It released Claude Opus 4.7 this month — its most advanced reasoning model yet. It also unveiled Claude Mythos, a “hyper-agentic” model that Anthropic has kept off the public market due to national security concerns.

AWS Growth in Focus

Patterson said he sees a “combination of capacity gains, AI diffusion, and client expansion” driving AWS in the first quarter. He is targeting 30% year-over-year growth for AWS — an acceleration from 2025, when AWS posted $128.7 billion in full-year revenue, up 20% from the prior year.

Strong results last week from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) added further confidence that AI infrastructure demand remains healthy heading into earnings season.

Chips and Satellite on the Radar

Amazon’s Trainium chip business has already surpassed $20 billion in revenue through AWS, growing at triple-digit rates year over year. Jassy indicated in his annual shareholder letter that he is open to selling Trainium chips to third parties — a potential new growth lever.

On the consumer side, KeyBanc pointed to solid grocery demand and the upcoming launch of Amazon Leo, the company’s satellite internet service. Amazon last week agreed to acquire Globalstar, adding spectrum to support Leo’s rollout.

Patterson does flag one risk: the ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed fuel costs higher. He expects that to weigh on Amazon’s second-quarter guidance. The company’s 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party sellers, levied earlier this month, could help offset some of that pressure.

Amazon is set to report first-quarter results on April 29.

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