Tariff Refunds Start Today As Wall Street Warns Prices Won’t Fall

Topline

The Trump administration on Monday began accepting requests for tariff refunds, after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff policy earlier this year, but some analysts warned Americans likely won’t see lower costs as a result.

More than $160 billion in tariff refunds are due for U.S. importers.

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Key Facts

U.S. Customs and Border Protection on Monday launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE, platform for companies to file a claim for a tariff refund.

Only an importer of record—the entity that officially paid the tariffs—can request refunds, though some legal analysts have criticized the process as only a few businesses publicly committed to sharing the proceeds, and many firms would benefit from the refunds despite asking consumers to pay higher prices brought on by the tariffs.

Tariff rebates would only benefit U.S. importers and it “seems unlikely anyone will rush to lower prices to their consumers,” UBS chief economist Paul Donovan wrote, and Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, told the New York Times he doesn’t expect firms to show an “immediate urge to pass [the refunds] back to consumers” as most companies anticipate Trump to issue new tariffs.

Goldman Sachs analysts Alec Philips, Elsie Peng and David Mericle wrote in February that consumer prices were unlikely to decline anytime soon because of the refunds, noting the levies are still expected to raise costs by another 0.1% in 2026 after adding 0.7% to inflation over the last 10 months.

The analysts said they would not expect companies to lower prices in response to tariff cuts as quickly as they increased them in response to Trump’s tariffs, and the odds of consumers seeing savings after the Supreme Court’s ruling will likely be negligible.

How Much Money Will Be Refunded?

The Trump administration will refund $166 billion to some 300,000 different importers, though that amount will be paid back with interest, Customs and Border Protection disclosed in a court filing. It’s not immediately clear how much each importer would recoup, though analysts suggest companies could receive billions of dollars. Citi analysts wrote earlier this month that Walmart could receive about $10.2 billion, with other billion-dollar refunds expected for Target ($2.2 billion) and Nike ($1 billion), and other retailers receiving less, including Gap ($400 million), Kohl’s ($550 million) and Home Depot ($540 million). Walmart CFO John Rainey said he doesn’t expect the refunds to be processed “very quickly,” and when they do arrive, the funds would be reflected in the company’s financials. About 20% of companies eligible for tariff refunds have signed up for electronic payments to receive tariff refunds, Brandon Lord, a Customs and Border Protection official, said in a court filing last week.

Contra

Costco CEO Ron Vachris said during an earnings call in March the company would turn tariff refunds into “lower prices and better values” for consumers. Vachris said that, at the time, the future impact of Trump’s tariffs remained “extremely fluid,” adding that it was “not yet clear” what refunds Costco would receive. FedEx also said it would issue refunds to shippers and consumers who originally paid the tariff charges. Costco and FedEx were among several companies that sued the federal government to recoup duties it had already paid, including Walmart, Staples and L’Oréal, among others.

Key Background

The Supreme Court ruled in February that Trump’s tariffs on U.S. trade partners are unlawful, leading the way for thousands of companies to seek refunds for the levies they paid. Trump’s tariffs ranged between 10% and 50% and were imposed on imports from nearly all countries, sparking concerns from economists that the levies would fuel rising costs for consumers. The court’s ruling did not address how refunds would be issued, however, and the Trump administration has sought to delay the refund process. Trump previously suggested the refund process could be disrupted in court for “years,” but the Court of International Trade ruled in March his administration had to begin canceling and refunding tariffs.