Mr. President, we need a ‘Singapore moment’

When countries with perilously low oil supplies, including the Philippines, were making a beeline to Iran to negotiate for the safe passage of oil tankers and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, one country said it wouldn’t. Surprisingly, it was Singapore, one of the smallest countries in the world.

It was a matter of principle, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said. Doing so would erode international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to which Singapore is a signatory. He cited Article 44 of UNCLOS which imposes an obligation on states bordering straits: They should not hamper transit passage.

Here is what he said in response to a question in their parliament:

“There is a right of transit passage, it’s not a privilege to be granted by the bordering state. It’s not a license to be subjugated at all. It is not a toll to be paid. It is a right of all nations’ ships to traverse.”

This has stayed with me — a “Singapore moment” — when a country upholds international law in a time of crisis despite potential adverse consequences. To be clear, I agreed with our government’s position to negotiate with Iran, an act of survival diplomacy. But I admire a country which stands on principle amid the chaos of a war affecting the world. 

The circumstances are different but the “Singapore moment” can apply to what the Philippines is facing now — the contentious issue of exploring for oil and gas with China in the West Philippine Sea, particularly in Reed Bank. International and domestic law are on our side. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. can stand on these principles, say no to China, and take pride in our “Singapore moment.”

Question of sovereignty

Marcos restarted the conversation on joint exploration when he said in a recent interview with Bloomberg News that the US-Israel war on Iran, which has caused a devastating oil crisis, could  bring Manila and Beijing together to seal an exploration deal: “That’s something we’ve been talking about for a great deal, but the territorial disputes… get in the way of that. Maybe this will provide the impetus for both sides to come to an agreement.”

Soon after, in a meeting of Department of Foreign Affairs officials with their counterparts last month in Quanzhou called the “bilateral consultation mechanism” on the South China Sea or BCM, they discussed “initial exchanges” on joint exploration, among others.

We’ve been through this before, an issue that has been bruising the air since the presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. It didn’t figure in the short-lived presidency of Joseph Estrada but surfaced in the administrations of Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and Rodrigo Duterte.

Why hasn’t this partnership taken off after all these years? 

China insists that Reed Bank is theirs despite a 2016 international arbitral court ruling that the feature is within our exclusive economic zone (EEZ). They do not agree to the terms of a service contract with the energy department which states that Philippine sovereignty over natural resources prevails. Chinese law must be followed, or there will be consequences.

During president Noynoy Aquino’s term (2010-2016), China harassed and blocked Philippine ships that were exploring in Reed Bank. On Duterte’s watch, Manila and Beijing agreed to negotiate a joint exploration deal but failed after three years of talks. Then-foreign secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr., who led the negotiations with his counterpart Wang Yi, cited sovereignty and constitutional issues as the reasons.

Lack of political will

Marcos appears to be using a global crisis to greenlight a fraught partnership with China — when, early in his term, he could have let Philippine companies survey and eventually drill for oil and gas in Reed Bank with other countries. But he lacked the political will, not heeding lessons from our neighbors Malaysia and Indonesia.

In 2019, Malaysia sent its Petronas-commissioned survey ship to explore in its EEZ off the coast of Borneo, an area within China’s nine-dash line claim. China warned Malaysia not to proceed. China Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia vessels shadowed the vessel so Malaysia sent its Navy and Coast Guard vessels to accompany the survey ship. 

Amid a standoff in 2020, three American warships and an Australian frigate conducted a joint exercise near the site of Petronas’ operations. A month later, the Malaysian ship finished its work and left the area.

In 2022, a similar incident happened in Malaysia’s EEZ in the South China Sea called the Kasawari field. CCG boats arrived in the area. Malaysia filed diplomatic protests against China and sent its Navy and Coast Guard ships to watch over the gas field. Petronas was able to complete its drilling.

The same story unfolded in Indonesia in 2021 in its EEZ off the coast of Natuna Islands facing the South China Sea, within the area claimed by China. The Chinese told Indonesia to stop; a four-month standoff ensued between the Indonesian Coast Guard and Navy ships and CCG vessels. Undeterred, Indonesia completed its drilling.

In 2023, the Supreme Court threw Marcos a lifeline. In a much-delayed decision regarding a controversial 2005 oil and gas survey by China, Vietnam, and the Philippines — which took place under then-president Arroyo — the ruling cleared the way for joint exploration with foreign corporations.

The Court said that the Philippine agreement with the two other countries violated the Constitution because it allowed wholly-owned foreign corporations to participate in exploring the country’s natural resources. Only the state has full and exclusive control of resources within the country’s waters. 

(For the twists and turns of the Philippines-China joint exploration saga, you can refer to the books Unrequited Love: Duterte’s China Embrace and Rock Solid: How the Philippines Won Its Maritime Case against China.)

Drilling for oil and gas in Reed Bank is only one of the solutions to the country’s energy crisis but results will take years.

Let me know what you think. You can email me at [email protected].

Till next newsletter!

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