Grayscale Says Bitcoin Price Bottomed at $63,000 in February

TLDR

• Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl, said Bitcoin formed a durable bottom at $63,000 on February 5.
• Bitcoin price has climbed more than 23% from that level and recently traded near $78,000.
• On-chain data shows the realized price of recent buyers stands around $74,000, placing many back in profit.
• CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen from about 3.25 million BTC to 2.67 million BTC.
• Large financial firms including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs are expanding Bitcoin exposure.

Bitcoin shows renewed strength after months of volatility, as new research points to a possible cycle low. Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said Bitcoin price reached its base at $63,000 on February 5. Fresh on-chain data and shrinking exchange reserves now support the view that selling pressure has eased.

Bitcoin Price Recovery Signals Cycle Low at $63,000

Pandl stated in “The Stack” that Bitcoin formed a durable bottom at $63,000 on February 5. He said the asset briefly touched $60,000 the next day but did not sustain that level. He added that price action since then supports his view of a completed correction.

Bitcoin price has since climbed over 23% and now trades near $78,000. It reached an intraday high of $78,441 and surpassed last week’s peak of $78,361. The rebound returned prices to levels last seen in early February.

Pandl pointed to the realized price of coins that moved within one to three months. He said that metric stands near $74,000 and shows that recent buyers have regained profit. He wrote, “Many recent buyers have recovered from earlier losses and are no longer under pressure to exit.”

As a result, short-term holders now sit above their average entry levels. This shift has reduced forced selling across major exchanges. Historical patterns show similar transitions at the start of past bull cycles.

The recent recovery followed easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire, which lowered oil prices and reduced market volatility. Global markets responded with broader gains, and crypto assets tracked that move.

Exchange Reserves Drop as Institutional Demand Rises

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have declined steadily since 2023. Holdings dropped from about 3.25 million BTC to roughly 2.67 million BTC. This decline reflects continued transfers from centralized platforms to self-custody wallets.

The steady outflow indicates stronger holding behavior among market participants. Fewer coins remain available for immediate sale on trading venues. Over time, lower exchange balances can limit short-term supply.

Large financial institutions continue to expand Bitcoin exposure through investment products. Firms such as BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs have increased involvement. Strategy has also added to its corporate Bitcoin holdings during this period.

These purchases have reduced circulating supply on exchanges. As institutions absorb available coins, market liquidity tightens further. CryptoQuant charts show the downward reserve trend has accelerated in recent months.

Pandl noted that Bitcoin remains below its October 2025 highs. However, he said current data suggests the market has shifted away from a corrective phase. Bitcoin price currently trades near $78,000 after reaching $78,441 earlier today.

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