Vision 2030 at 10: Progress, priorities and unfinished business

This weekend marks the 10th anniversary of the publication of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Current events in the Strait of Hormuz, the status of the kingdom’s giga-projects and the Covid-19 pandemic have captured the headlines and combined to overshadow the original goals set out 10 years ago.

And, as Frank Kane has noted, the decision to add World Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup has expanded the kingdom’s to-do list in a way that was not foreseen by the document’s authors. The World Cup and Expo are the priority projects now.

But with four years to go before the Vision is due, it seems like an appropriate time to revisit at least some of the original aims.

The 85-page document set out three overarching goals: to create a thriving society, a vibrant economy and an ambitious nation, all anchored within the kingdom’s Islamic identity.

More specifically, the Vision vowed to push Saudi Arabia from its position as the 19th largest economy in the world to a place within the top 15; to increase non-oil government revenue to SAR1 trillion; and to raise foreign direct investment to 5.7 percent of GDP.

The Vision also committed the kingdom to raising average life expectancy to 80 years, lowering the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals from 12 percent to 7 percent, raising women’s participation in the workforce, and making the country among the top 10 most competitive nations in the world.

It also foresaw the privatisation of state assets, the Public Investment Fund becoming the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with SAR7 billion ($1.8 billion) assets under management, and the localisation of the oil and gas sector.

That list is not exhaustive but it captures the main economic goals.

One standout success is female participation in the workforce, which is now 36 percent, according to S&P. Life expectancy has also improved dramatically, reaching 79.9 years.

Another is diversification away from dependency on hydrocarbons. Given oil price volatility, it is always going to be a moveable metric but as of 2024, non-oil accounted for over half of the economy, according to PwC.

Home ownership has also performed strongly. Back in 2016, the Vision document reported that fewer than half of Saudi families owned their homes. Yet at the end of last year ownership was two-thirds of the population and the country aims to reach 70 percent by the end of the decade, although that final 4 percent may be much trickier to achieve.

In terms of global competitiveness, the kingdom was the 17th of 69 countries last year, just behind China and ahead of Germany and Australia, according to IMD.

There are significant shortfalls. PIF assets under management are not close to SAR7 billion. Nor is it the largest SWF in the world. That accolade falls to Norway.

Foreign direct investment has also disappointed. In February the kingdom appointed a new investment minister, which analysts said signals a sense of urgency to attract foreign capital. The PIF has also said it is focusing more investment into the domestic economy.

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When it comes to privatisation, in 2019 the Saudi government sold a stake in Aramco, the state oil champion, creating at a stroke the world’s fourth largest company (at the time). Subsequently, stock market activity in the form of initial public offerings was strong – at least it was until the end of February – but significant privatisation of state assets has not happened.

In terms of human development, the Vision is explicit in setting education and employment targets but in 2021 nearly 3 million Saudis were still living in poverty according to the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia.

Much has changed since 2016. The kingdom has been forced to rationalise the slew of giga-projects. And PIF, the driver of change in the kingdom, has announced a new strategy focused on tourism, urban development, advanced manufacturing, industrials and logistics, clean energy, water and renewables infrastructure, and Neom. Flexibility and adaptation to change is good.

The Vision was always intended to catalyse and to motivate. In that it has succeeded. The overarching goals remain worthwhile and much has been achieved. It may be a work in progress but rereading Vision 2030 is still worthwhile and begs the question of what can be achieved over the next four years.