U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Monthly CPI inflation rose by 0.9%, while annually it climbed to 3.3%. The data, slightly below expectations, remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Due to the Iran war, energy prices jumped 11%, with gasoline seeing a massive 21.2% increase dominating inflation. These pressures also affected crypto markets.
12-month CPI change by categories. Source: BLSMarch CPI Details: Inflation Remaining Above Fed Target
The CPI data showed core inflation (excluding food and energy) remaining steady at 3.1%. While analysts expected 3.4%, the data gave a slight relief signal, but geopolitical risks continue the pressure. As Fed Chair Powell emphasized in his recent speech, more data is needed for a sustainable return to 2%.
Iran War Impact: 21% Jump in Energy and Gasoline Prices
Middle East tensions pushed crude oil higher. Brent oil rose 9%, WTI 10%, and gas station prices hit records. While this brakes consumer spending, it highlights inflation hedge assets like Bitcoin. Experts predict CPI could exceed 4% if the war prolongs.
CME FedWatch: 98.4% Probability of Rate Hold in April FOMC
April FOMC interest rate probabilities. Source: CME GroupInvestors have priced in 0% chance of rate cut. FOMC members are divided on 2026 cuts: Hawks highlight inflation, doves recession. This uncertainty increases volatility.
BTC CPI Reaction: 1.26% Rise from 73K to 78K
Post-data, BTC jumped 1.5% from 73.000$, currently at 78.019,80$ (+1.26%). RSI at 65.68 in bullish territory, overall trend uptrend but Supertrend giving bearish signal. Click for detailed BTC analysis.
BTC Technical Levels: Strong Support and Resistance Analysis
EMA 20: 74.121$. Here are the critical levels:
| Level | Price | Score | Distance | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 (Support) | 76.132,95$ | 73/100 ⭐ | -2,85% | Previous Day Low, Fibo 0.382 |
| S2 (Support) | 77.678,73$ | 70/100 ⭐ | -0,88% | S1, Pin Bar |
| R1 (Resistance) | 78.935,48$ | 86/100 ⭐ | +0,72% | R1, Fibo 0.500, Keltner Upper |
| R2 (Resistance) | 83.437,33$ | 63/100 ⭐ | +6,47% | Fibo 0.618 |
If S1 holds strong, R1 breakout targets 80K. Details on BTC futures here.
ALT Coins and Overall Market: Risk-On Mode
ETH and other ALTs rose +2%. Rally expected led by BTC due to inflation hedge demand, but Fed hawkishness could create volatility. Investors should watch S1 support.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/cpi-33-inflation-rose-btc-surged-to-78k
