Fed Minutes: Interest Rate Cut Discussions and Crypto Impact

Federal Reserve (Fed) members expressed divided views on additional interest rate cuts until the end of 2026 due to the impact of the war in the Middle East on the US economy at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The minutes of the March 17-18 meeting were released on Wednesday, and interest rates were kept steady in the 3.5-3.75% range by a vote of 11 to 1. Most members stated that interest rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation falls in line with expectations, but approached cautiously due to war risks and inflationary pressures. The last interest rate cut was 25 basis points on December 10, 2025. Interest rate cuts create a positive effect by providing increased liquidity for crypto markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the March 18 FOMC news conference. Source: Federal Reserve

Divided Views on Interest Rate Cuts in FOMC Minutes

Some members also raised the possibility of interest rate hikes if inflation remains above target. The labor market appears vulnerable to shocks due to low employment growth. According to CME Group FedWatch data, for the December meeting, the probability of rates staying steady is 75.6%, a cut 20.4%, and a hike 2.4%. The next FOMC meeting will be held on April 28-29.

Middle East War Risks and Inflationary Pressures

The minutes emphasize that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could affect energy prices and supply chains. This situation complicates the Fed’s process of lowering inflation to its 2% target. Members discussed adjusting liquidity policies according to war uncertainty.

Crypto Market Reaction: ETF Flows and ALT Technical Analysis

According to April 22, 2026 data, Bitcoin ETFs saw $335.8 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $96.4 million. These flows reflect liquidity expectations despite the Fed’s cautious stance. Liquidity increase is critical for BTC detailed analysis. Current data for ALT coin: Price $0.01 (+0.58% 24h), RSI 60.88 (neutral), uptrend but Supertrend bearish. EMA 20: $0.0071. Supports: S1 $0.0076 (strong, 74% score), S2 $0.0072. Resistances: R1 $0.0078 (81% score), R2 $0.0090. ALT detailed analysis and ALT futures are recommended.

Next FOMC and Market Expectations

Ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, the market is consolidating with expectations of steady rates. Low interest rates are a bull signal for crypto, but war risks could increase volatility.