Kalshi bettors see Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July

Bettors on the prediction markets platform Kalshi don’t think the Strait of Hormuz will be open to normal traffic flows for months. 

Odds that traffic will return to normal by June 1 fell below 50% on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran extended a ceasefire but neither side disclosed any new agreement regarding Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. ending its naval blockade of the passageway. 

On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the strait, while oil prices climbed higher with Brent crude again above $100 per barrel. 

Bettors on Kalshi give just a 42% chance that normal traffic flows through the strait by June 1. They assign a 59% chance that happens by July 1, and a 61% chance by Aug. 1. Kalshi defines normal traffic flows on the contract as the seven-day moving average of transit calls through the strait based on data from IMF PortWatch. 

On Polymarket, bettors give a 45% chance that traffic through the strait returns to normal by the end of May, and a 67% chance by the end of June. Polymarket uses the same definition of normal traffic as Kalshi. 

Transit through the strait remains low. On Wednesday — the same day Iran said it seized two ships sailing through the strait without authorization — eight ships crossed the strait, including three oil tankers, according to data from LSEG. Before the war, traffic typically included more than 100 ships daily in the strait. 

In a Thursday note, UBS chief investment officer for the Americas Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi wrote that a reopening of the strait “remains elusive.”

She pointed to comments on Wednesday from Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who said the strait will not reopen so long as the U.S. naval blockade is in place. 

“These developments point to the challenges of resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait to allow for a normalization of energy flows and production,” she wrote. Hoffmann-Burchardi added, “a prolonged period of elevated energy prices may weigh more heavily on growth.”

Kalshi bettors place the odds of a U.S. recession in 2026, which the platform defines traditionally as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, at just under 26%, down significantly from earlier in the war when it neared 37% at the end of March. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

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