Bitcoin Recovery Builds Toward $80K, but Resistance and Selling Pressure Loom

• Bitcoin rises toward $80K as spot demand and ETF inflows strengthen.
• Short-term holders near breakeven add selling pressure around the $80K level.
• Profit-taking has surged above historical warning levels, even as volatility remains subdued.

Bitcoin is approaching $80,000 after rebounding on renewed spot demand and ETF inflows. The recovery follows earlier declines that pushed prices near $65,000. However, rising sell pressure and key resistance levels may limit further gains.

Spot Demand Strengthens Price Move

A recent analysis by Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s ongoing gains are supported by real buying activity. Notably, spot demand has strengthened, with buyers stepping in across major exchanges. 

Data shows a rise in cumulative volume delta, indicating that real purchases, not just derivatives trading, are driving the price higher. Meanwhile, exchange data highlights uneven activity. Buying pressure has been more pronounced on Binance, while activity on Coinbase has remained relatively muted.

ETF Inflows Support Market Recovery

Data from SoSoValue also shows increased buying interest from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.  The data shows a daily net inflow of $85.04 million, bringing the cumulative total to $58.08 billion.

Notably, the last figure marks six consecutive trading days of inflows from Bitcoin ETFs, during which the market has invested over $1.5 billion in BTC. Notably, total net assets across these ETFs stand at nearly $100.98 billion, with a daily trading value of around $3.03 billion as of April 22.

Short Positions Raise Squeeze Risk

Meanwhile, funding rates in perpetual futures markets remain negative, signaling that traders continue to hold short positions. This reflects a cautious market outlook following earlier price declines.

At the same time, heavy short positioning creates the potential for a short squeeze. If prices continue to rise, short sellers may be forced to close their positions, adding upward pressure. 

Resistance Builds Near $80,000

Bitcoin now faces a key resistance zone between $78,000 and $80,100, aligned with the short-term holder cost basis. This level represents the average purchase price of investors who bought within the last 155 days.

Notably, Bitcoin trades at $78,126, a 0.2% rise over the past day, increasing its weekly and monthly gains to 4.1% and 11.4%, respectively. 

As prices approach this range, many investors return to breakeven. Historical data shows that such conditions often lead to increased selling, as traders exit positions to reduce risk. Previous rallies under similar conditions required multiple attempts to break above this level.

Profit-Taking Signals Market Pressure

Short-term holders realized profit volume has risen sharply, with the 24-hour average exceeding $4.4 million per hour. This level is significantly higher than the $1.5 million threshold that previously aligned with local market tops.

The increase suggests that investors are actively locking in gains. Without sufficient new demand, this selling pressure could slow or reverse the current upward trend.

Volatility and Market Structure

Volatility indicators remain subdued. Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has declined to 40.7%, down from 49% earlier in April. Implied volatility has also trended lower across multiple time frames.

Options data shows that demand for downside protection remains steady, with longer-term skew holding between 10% and 12%. At the same time, recent activity indicates a shift from call buying to call selling as prices approach $80,000, suggesting traders are taking profits rather than increasing exposure.

Notably, Bitcoin’s move above its true market mean signals a shift toward a more stable market phase. However, analysts note that the current structure still reflects a recovery within a broader bearish trend.

In sum, the $80,000 level remains a key test, while $70,000 is emerging as a support zone. A sustained breakout may require consistent ETF inflows and stronger spot demand. 

Related: BTC Reclaims $78K as Exchange Supply Continues to Drop