Newmont (NEM) Stock Rises After Crushing Q1 Estimates — Again

TLDR

• Newmont posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.90, beating the $2.18 estimate; revenue rose 46% to $7.31 billion
• The company hit a quarterly record $3.1 billion in free cash flow and AISC came in at $1,029/oz, below full-year guidance
• A magnitude 4.5 earthquake struck near the Cadia mine on April 14; underground operations are expected to return to ~80% capacity within five weeks
• Newmont’s board approved a new $6 billion share repurchase authorization, its fourth since February 2024; the company has bought back $6 billion total in roughly 24 months
• Full-year 2026 production guidance of 5.3 million gold ounces remains intact despite Q2 expected to come in slightly below Q1

Newmont (NEM) stock edged up 0.2% in Friday premarket after the gold miner reported its sixth straight earnings and revenue beat. The stock had gained 1.6% in after-hours trade on Thursday before that, and is up about 11% year-to-date heading into the session.

Newmont Corporation, NEM

Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $2.90, more than double the $1.25 posted a year ago and well clear of the $2.18 Wall Street consensus. Revenue climbed 46% year-over-year to $7.31 billion, with gold sales alone accounting for $6.04 billion of that.

The average realized gold price in the quarter was $4,900 per ounce — up 16% from Q4 2025.

Record Cash Flow and Tight Costs

Free cash flow hit a quarterly record of $3.1 billion, even after around $1.3 billion in cash tax payments. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $5.2 billion.

Gold all-in sustaining costs (AISC) landed at $1,029 per ounce on a by-product basis, below the company’s own full-year guidance range. Management credited stronger co-product pricing — silver and copper — along with disciplined capital spending.

The company is maintaining its full-year cost guidance despite higher energy prices. Every $10 per barrel move in oil is expected to shift AISC by about $12 per ounce. Diesel accounts for roughly 6% of direct operating costs.

Production for Q1 was 1.3 million ounces of gold, 30,000 tons of copper, and 9 million ounces of silver. Several sites outperformed — Cadia, Merian, Ahafo South, and Yanacocha all saw improved output versus Q4 2025.

Cadia Earthquake and Q2 Outlook

A magnitude 4.5 earthquake near the Cadia operation in Australia on April 14 is the main near-term operational wrinkle. There were no injuries. Underground power and dewatering systems have been restored, and the company received regulatory approval to begin repairs.

Underground rehabilitation is expected to take about five weeks, returning Cadia to roughly 80% capacity. Full recovery is targeted by the end of Q2. Q2 production is expected to come in slightly below Q1 due to a short gap in mill feed, with normal levels resuming in Q3.

Sustaining capital is also set to rise in Q2 due to summer activity at Brucejack and Red Chris, mobile equipment deliveries, and tailings work at Cadia and Boddington.

On the capital return front, Newmont has now bought back $6 billion in stock over the past 24 months. The board approved a fresh $6 billion repurchase authorization — its fourth since February 2024. A quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share was also declared, in line with the company’s target of $1.1 billion in annual dividends.

Newmont said it is considering reinstating multi-year guidance and described 2026 as a “trough year,” with potential production upside in 2027 from higher-grade areas at Lihir, new caves at Cadia, and the continued ramp-up at Ahafo North.

Gold futures were at $4,724 per ounce as of Thursday, down about 12% from the January 29 record close of $5,354.80.

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